ATs -- bad position

private joker · #1 07-08-2005, 01:59 AM

No read on the PFR. Rest of the table is fishy.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 folds, MP3 calls, SB calls, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Turn: (9 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks.

River: (9 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, MP3 folds, SB folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13 BB

SCfuji · #2 07-08-2005, 02:19 AM

doubt hes got a 6 so he hit his backdoor it looks like.

pf the call is good with your hand and with the raiser to your immediate left.

flop you snag the lead with your nut flush draw so shouldnt this lead to a

turn bet? the table is fishy so how often are you actually going to lose these guys? you gain when 3 others call even on the turn with a about a 30% chance to win on the river.

river is tricky. check and see what happens? an ace splits, a 6 from a fish kills you and a spade flush kills you.

cjhellm · #3 07-08-2005, 03:21 AM

I think I just check/call the river. I don't like betting into a pot that will usually be chopped and is only 9 bets especially with the flush coming on the river and three guys behind you.

Azhrarn · #4 07-08-2005, 03:25 AM

I like a turn bet. You may clean up some outs, you may get the pre-flop raiser to fold a better hand (AJ or AK), and it helps disguise your hand somewhat. Also, there's a small chance they could all fold, and with a backdoor straight, overcards to the flop, and your nut flush draw, there's a good chance it will be a value bet.

I like the rest.

Derek132260 · #5 07-08-2005, 03:35 AM

Why not bet the turn to clean up outs/for value? If PFR'er in on AK, he likely feels he's drawing to four outs at this point. While you're also drawing, you're drawing 12 outs to a monster...3 more possible ace winners, 3 more tens that improve your hand. With rest of the table being fishy, who knows what they might call or fold incorrectly to your turn bet. I think there's a value case and a protection case to be made for a turn bet here.

Nick C · #6 07-08-2005, 07:07 AM

Ugh. I probably would have played it the same way . . . and then questioned myself afterwards.

Anyway, I like the flop checkraise.

I like the turn check too, I think. I don't think UTG+1 is folding AK. I kind of doubt he'll fold AJ (he still has his wheel draw, and why should he think the queen helped you?). And if he has AQ and raises with it, and he might, then that kind of sucks (though it's not too bad if you happen to get two-cold calls). And if by some chance UTG+1 was waiting for the turn to raise with an overpair, then that's not good for you either, unless the queen makes him reconsider.

The river is difficult and not much fun. Unless UTG+1 was scared of the queen on the turn and/or feared another checkraise, it really is looking like he has a big ace, I think. So unless he hit a backdoor flush, you're most likely chopping with him. Betting into him makes it easier for others to get away from their hands if UTG+1 raises and the other players can't beat/tie a straight. But they might fold anyway, and, if you check, a raise from MP3 is going to be hard to interpret, and I think a checkraise from SB will be as well (though that would scare me more).

Yikes. I don't know. I think anyone who raises on the river most likely is at least tied with you. I suppose it would be harder for someone with just an ace to 3-bet than to raise, but given your reads on MP3 and SB, who knows? (What I'm thinking is that betting and then folding if it comes back two more to you could be a good line to take, but I'm not sure. In any event, I think the folding if you checked and it came back two to you would be more difficult, in a way, though the pot odds you'd be getting in that scenario would be worse than if you had bet and ended up facing a 3-bet.)

I think I like checking the river and calling one but not two. On the other hand, if by some chance the river got checked through, that would be a disappointment.

I guess I'm confusing myself, mostly. And maybe that's appropriate. I think the situation on the river is confusing, or at least difficult.

Aces McGee · #7 07-08-2005, 10:28 AM

I think checking the river is best here. This is a likely chop with UTG+1, and you don't want to risk him raising (as he did) and knocking out MP3 and the SB, who are possible overcallers. If it gets checked through, it's not terribly likely you would've gotten any calls frm hands you beat, anyway.

-McGee

Paxosmotic · #8 07-08-2005, 11:34 AM

I think we've probably got about 11 outs here. 9 clubs for the nut flush, 1 five (4 unaccounted for 5s, 1 is a club already counted, 1 is a spade that gives someone else a flush, and couting the 2 remaining as 1 because some donk could have a 6). I'll pass counting the aces as outs because loose-passives are going to call this down with an ace regardless, so that's probably no good, and let's count the tens as 1 out to be conservative. That leaves us 11 out of 46 outs that can help us.

We've got ~25% chance of winning this pot and we'd be contributing 25% of the money or more at this point since someone would likely fold here. I don't think a check is terrible or passing up any real value. Anyone with thoughts on this line?