$100 NL Overpair on monotone board

xorbie · #1 07-07-2005, 04:42 PM

6 max with 5 at the table. Villain has been pretty loose and agressive PF, calling and making small raises very often, and has folded to reraises a lot. He's also been pretty active on the flop, betting often when others check. There's been a lot of folding PF, so the table standard seems to have fallen to a $3 raise to steal the blinds. Very recently Villain called $4 PF raise with KK and then min checkraised a rags flop against shortstack (and ended up taking his stack, he had QQ).

I was not Hero in this hand, and I know the line is not really conventional.

UTG+1 Hero ($45) raises to $3 with black KK. Villain ($100) calls in CO, BB calls, 3 to the flop.

Flop ($9): 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB checks, Hero checks, Villain bets $8, BB folds, Hero check raises to $16, Villain calls.

Turn ($39): 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Hero checks, Villain puts hero all in ($30). How many make this call.

UOPokerPlayer · #2 07-07-2005, 04:47 PM

I do. I think if Villian had a smaller flush, he would've three bet the flop and not let the As or Ks see another card for cheap, the same could be said if he's against a set....actually now that i think of it, i'm probably overthinking this. In a real situation i'm going to see a set or made flush too often and i fold for that sole reason.

boxedIn · #3 07-07-2005, 05:19 PM

I don't really think twice about making this call. Though I hate your flop play. This flop, while not ideal, isn't horrible for you and, in general, I think you'll be ahead. I would bet pot on the flop because you're likely to punish draws and gain lots of information.

Considering play at this level, I think you'll see four situation: an overpair less than yours (like say TT) or a 9x, an A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], a set, and a flush that you have redraws against (I don't see A high flush betting this hard.)

A set, while not far-fetched, seems semi-unlikely all considering everything. Plus you have a draw against it, which is significant enough to discount it.

Considering he's loose, I can definitely see A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9x playing like this, as I can see A9 in general playing like this, thinking he's punishing your flush draw.

The made flush is also decently likely, and limits your drawing power a bit since that would mean you have only 7 outs, but as with a set, I think the likelihood of you finding this combined with the likelihood of you outdrawing anyway can negate this possibility.

In short, I don't think it's a hard call to make.

xorbie · #4 07-07-2005, 05:22 PM

I should have put this in the original post.

Second hand at table, Villain is dealt QQ. Guy in CO opens for $4, villain calls. He then calls flop, turn and river bets with his overpair on an ugly board, and villain ended up having a straight. So he hasn't played his overpairs this hard in the past.

In fact, he hasn't really put this amount in a pot period up until this hand.

Go_Blue88 · #5 07-07-2005, 05:45 PM

first of all, i don't think the minimum check raise makes any sense. if you're going to check raise, raise bigger...why'd you raise the minimum?
on the turn, why'd you check? i feel like it looks to villian that you have the ace of spades. once you c/r you should be willing to put it all in b/c you're a shortstack. you don't have enough chips to make this play and fold b/c if you bet out on the turn (which would give you info) you're pot committed.
anyways, i definately call this.

xorbie · #6 07-07-2005, 05:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I was not Hero in this hand, and I know the line is not really conventional.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

boxedIn · #7 07-07-2005, 05:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I should have put this in the original post.

Second hand at table, Villain is dealt QQ. Guy in CO opens for $4, villain calls. He then calls flop, turn and river bets with his overpair on an ugly board, and villain ended up having a straight. So he hasn't played his overpairs this hard in the past.

In fact, he hasn't really put this amount in a pot period up until this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

So he's a weak-loose player is what you're saying? Then I'd put him fairly solidly on either a bare A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or a made non-nut flush, with tendency to believe the made flush more. It doesn't matter -- your draw is strong enough and you'll be wrong with your read often enough to make this a call.

I still think if you had bet the flop out solidly, you would have had much much more information with which to analyze. Min-check-raising, then checking gives you minimal information with which to make this call. Had you bet out and he called, you probably could been more sure of betting the turn hard and just praying you weren't going to run into the nut flush. Had you bet hard and been raised, you might be able to consider folding given your description of the guy, but I'd still lean towards calling since you'll be wrong enough to make it profitable (with your suckout power). I just don't see a way you're going to get behind from this hand without a very strong read on your opponent -- if you have one, good for you ... but so far you've said he's loose and aggressive then changed to "he doesn't put money into the pot that often." From your second description, he doesn't sound loose and aggressive -- he sounds like a fairly decent player, if not one that's that creative. And a fairly decent player will still have too wide a range of hands here to fold.

EDIT: Just saw you weren't hero. Change all those "you"s to "that person" then ... doesn't change much.

xorbie · #8 07-07-2005, 05:57 PM

I agree that the flop play is bad (check push is better), but I don't think that checking this turn is really that bad because betting pot committs you when he is only going to raise you when you are beat, and isn't really going to call when you are ahead (except with JJ and QQ with a spade).

I'm assuming this is an easy fold with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]?

ravensfan · #9 07-07-2005, 06:36 PM

How much has he bluffed or slow played on flop play?
You mention the one hand, sounds like he's trying that again?!

I could see a double bluff (?). He probably has the best hand b/c it sounds like he tries to steal preflop and is a little weak on the flop. So he might not be calling the c/r when such a scary flop is showing unless he has the nuts... Could he have a str8/flush draw? (maybe Aspades, and a 6 or something) Or maybe even a str8?

Sounds like he has a good hand, but pot odds are 2-1 so. I'd say the call is priced pretty fairly, b/c you probably have about 18% of hitting if he doesn't have the nuts but has best hand (say 10Jspades, or a str8), and 2/3 of winning even if he has Aspades and 9...

I'd call, only b/c I have a black king and there's no more money I can lose, and then i'd hold my breath. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

boxedIn · #10 07-07-2005, 08:09 PM

If you know he's going to bet allin with whatever he has, then checking the turn is a perfect move.

However, he could just have easily have had A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and checked behind and you might have screwed yourself with that check. Also, a turn bet might, just might, get a set to fold. Probably not, but it might.

If you have red Kings, I think then you're in a must-bet-pot situation on that flop. After that, it's an iffy situation that you'd have to do based on your read of the player -- he might be semi-bluffing with a flush-draw + an over, he might have the goods. In that case, I think you have a much much stronger argument for a fold, depending on the person/situation of course.