WSOP Matchup Picks

[Kevroc]

I'm risking 700 here...

Ted Forrest over Men Nguyen -130
Johnny Chan over Phil Hellmuth +100
Chip Reese over Greg Raymer -110
Phil Ivey over Howard Lederer -130
Chris Moneymaker over Robert Varkonyi -110
Tuan Le over Allen Cunningham -120

(whoever lasts longer wins)

any thoughts?

[MCS]

I like Chan, Reese, and Moneymaker.
I am indifferent about Forrest.
I don't like Ivey.
I hate Le.

I tend to think that the difference in players is small enough that the juice matters a lot. So I'm not sure I'd lay -130 on Forrest even though I think he's better. I don't like the Ivey pick because of the juice and the fact I think a lot of Lederer's game.

I think Cunningham would be a reasonable bet at -130 over Le. No way in hell I take Le for -120.

[jedi]

New to this: Risking about $30. Yes, I'm a wuss

Raymer -160 over Moneymaker
Liebert -140 over Evelyn Ng.
Paul Phillips +115 over Phil Hellmuth

[allinbaby]

I don't know if these are good bets... I too think the juice is too great.

[allinbaby]

WSOP MAIN EVENT: HIGHEST FINISH IN THE MONEY (GRP 1)
Outcome Odds
NONE IN THE MONEY 7-5
PHIL IVEY 3-1
MICHAEL MIZRACHI 4-1
CHRIS FERGUSON 9-2
DANIEL NEGREANU 5-1

I personally don't like Negreanu but, at 5-1 odd, i think this is +EV.

[allinbaby]

WSOP MAIN EVENT: HIGHEST FINISH IN THE MONEY (GRP 2)
Outcome Odds
NONE IN THE MONEY 6-5
ERICK LINDGREN 3-1
PHIL HELLMUTH 7-2
DAN HARRINGTON 9-2
JOHN JUANDA 11-2

John Juanda at 11-2... I think this too is a good pick.


How about Annie Duke @ 6-1.

WSOP MAIN EVENT: HIGHEST FINISH IN THE MONEY (GRP 7)
Outcome Odds
NONE IN THE MONEY 4-5
T.J. CLOUTIER 5-2
JUHA HELPPI 4-1
JOHN PHAN 4-1
ANNIE DUKE 6-1

[Kevroc]

yeah Tuan is more of a home run hitter and Cunningham the singles breed. I guess I got carried away with Tuan's two victories this year. Its about lasting longer, so that was prolly a bad play.

the juice is bad, these are more a reason to root for players. Maybe next year we can actually win a satellite to this thing!

(as soon as I lose my FPS-itis in tourneys!)

[Kevroc]

I like Negreanu best of these plays, wish they put Lindgren in with a different group. I like him alot but, not versus those at that price.

[jedi]

So, how are we doing over here? I heard Forrest was out, and so was Hellmuth. I had Paul Phillips lasting longer than Hellmuth, but I'm not sure who busted out first. Raymer is still in as far as I know.

[Kevroc]

i dunno, the question is if Chan and Hellmuth both lost on day one, does day 1a and 1c rate the same?

we shall see!

Tuan is in while Cunnningham is out [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Lederer has way more chips than Ivey [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
Forrest and Men are out reportedly
Chan and Hellmuth the same deal
Raymer has twice the chips Reese has [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
Moneymaker hanging on, Varkonyi havent heard about...