whats my equity with 47s?

[JooWish622]

4 handed 2-4 game on full tilt. Villian is in the BB with 160 to start. I have 600

Tight-predictable oppenants.
I raise to 12 with 47c. BB raises to 20. I call.
FLop is 73J two clubs. Villian bets 40. My move? If I raise here, whats my equity? Id say my folding equity here is about 10 percent. I put him on AJ 10 percent of the time, AA/KK 60 percent. AK/AQ/JJ the other percentage of the time. At what stack size would this become more a calling situation?

[cupfinal]

I don't think you can assume he has a big pair if the table is as on tilt as you say. Even if he has AA- QQ, you have 14 outs twice, making you about even money. There's also a good chance has two big cards and that you are ahead, especially 4 handed and tilted. I think you should raise to 80-100 total. There's a good chance he lays it down if he has nothing. This also gives him an opportunity to move in, which isn't bad for you. Even if he moves in, the pot would contain (40preflop+80+200raise)=320. You would have to invest 40-60 to win 320, giving you a huge price.

[17percent]

personally id smooth call all the way.. go all in on any check

[Prevaricator]

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I don't think you can assume he has a big pair if the table is as on tilt as you say.

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full tilt is the poker site not the status of the players.

[thabadguy]

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I don't think you can assume he has a big pair if the table is as on tilt as you say.

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full tilt is the poker site not the status of the players.

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OMFG!!!!!

[JooWish622]

In regards to the first reply, even if he does have a big pair, he also has redraws if he has a suited broadway. I am unsure how to work out the numbers and I feel like my push here was slightly -ev given my oppenant's low fold equity. Someone crank out the numbers?

[dtbog]

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Id say my folding equity here is about 10 percent. I put him on AJ 10 percent of the time, AA/KK 60 percent. AK/AQ/JJ the other percentage of the time. At what stack size would this become more a calling situation?

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I don't quite understand what you're saying here with the folding equity comment... I assume that the 10% is when he folds his AK/AQ and it's not of clubs?

You're ahead of any one pair hand where he doesn't have a club, and close enough to even if he does have a club that the dead money in the pot makes it a +EV push anyway. Villain only has a pot-sized raise left, so this seems like a pretty easy push.

If the question is "what's my equity", though -- do you know how to peform this calculation?

-dB

[arod15]

Easy fold he only has 120 you wont get paid enough to draw out on him. If he had deep stacks deeper than you id prob raise him. Id be willing to gamble. Its only worth the gamble if you get paid. 160 is not enough. Im out....

[dtbog]

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Easy fold he only has 120 you wont get paid enough to draw out on him. If he had deep stacks deeper than you id prob raise him. Id be willing to gamble. Its only worth the gamble if you get paid. 160 is not enough. Im out....

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This makes zero sense to me.

It's certainly push or fold on the flop, and I say push.

If Villain is deeper than $600, why do you raise? I'd call.
-dB

[xorbie]

Just push it in. Not doing so is terrible with $40 already in the pot. You're coinflipping here, with it being a question about whether this guy has a club to go with his pair.