How would you have played it?

[nightlyraver]

I haven't found a converter that will convert Full Tilt hands, so below it the hand history. It it's the second hand of a MTT - two hundred someodd players, 27 get paid. Obviously no reads.

Dealer: Hand #148483983
Dealer: ak4771 posts the small blind of 15
Dealer: tommypoly posts the big blind of 30
Dealer: You have been dealt [Td Th]
Dealer: CLOVIS8 folds
Dealer: Meatball13 folds
Dealer: Chip Leider folds
Dealer: Hero raises to 90
Dealer: mojo420 folds
Dealer: bucky2 calls 90
Dealer: pete8688 folds
Dealer: ak4771 calls 75
Dealer: tommypoly calls 60
Dealer: The flop is [9c Ks 8c]
Dealer: ak4771 checks
Dealer: tommypoly checks
Dealer: Hero bets 240
Dealer: bucky2 folds
Dealer: ak4771 folds
Dealer: tommypoly calls 240
Dealer: The turn is [4d]
Dealer: tommypoly checks
Dealer: Hero bets 600
Dealer: tommypoly raises to 1,170, and is all in
Dealer: Hero has 15 seconds left to act
ak4771: uh oh
Dealer: Hero folds
Dealer: Uncalled bet of 570 returned to tommypoly
Dealer: tommypoly mucks
Dealer: tommypoly wins the pot (2,040)

Ok, the question it this: How would you have played it? In short, the drawing possibilities told me that villian probably check-called on a draw, so I bet big on the turn. However, I can't think of a single hand that I was beating check-calling the flop and then check-raising all-in against myself who has shown nothing but strength the whole way. I'm thinking that he has A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or better but maybe I'm wrong?

[PokerGoblin]

good fold.

It looks like you are clearly behind. He smooth called your continuation bet on the flop, then check-raised all in when a blank hit on the turn. Chances are he has a set of 8's or 9's. I think AK is much less likely, I would expect someone holding AK on a two suited flop to check-raise the flop instead of the turn. His hand is much stronger than TPTK. He probably hopes you have AK and will call all-in drawing dead.

Sometimes I will check behind on the turn when I have position and there is an overcard to my pocket pair on the board. You do risk giving a free card to a flush and/or straight draw but it might be worth it to keep the pot smallish and maybe hope for a cheap showdown.

Going with your read that he's on a flushdraw, firing again on the turn is fine.

PG

[nightlyraver]

If you check behind and another blank hit on the river, do you call a bet of 400-600 on the river if he comes out betting?

[PokerGoblin]

it depends on how many chips it leaves you with. if you still have at least 20 - 30 big blinds early in the tournament then it's probably ok to make the call. You'll still have room to maneuver.

Checking the turn could also indicate to your opponent that you might just have big cards, and you can sometimes get someone holding a busted draw to bluff at it. That's not this case in the hand in question, but it is a possibility.

PG

[nightlyraver]

It would have left me in this case with like 500-600 in chips and the BB is t30. So you don't call on the end then?

[PokerGoblin]

OK all of this assumes you checked behind on the turn, the river bricks and he leads out for 500, giving you about 2.5-1 odds on your money for simplicity's sake.

First lets logically try to put him on some sort of hand. From the Big blind he calls 60 more after two people cold call, getting about 5-1 pot odds to see the flop. People will defend their blinds with a wide variety of hands, especially when they're being laid 5-1.

If he has top pair and a flush draw, the standard play would be to check raise all in on the flop. He is only behind to AA, a set, two pair, and a king with a bigger kicker. Even if you have AA or have him outkicked, he is better than even money to improve with two cards to come.

If he has AK he'd have likely reraised preflop (I would have), so we can rule this out. I would also expect him to check-raise the flop here as well.

So a more likely range of hands is KQ, K-J, K-T, J-T, 10-7, 6-7 and maybe some hands like J-9 and T-9 are real possiblities. A-x of clubs is also a good possibility. I don't have him on 8-9 for two pair, because he again would likely have check-raised the flop with such a vulnerable hand.

So, after the river bricks he leads into you with one of two hands, top pair bad kicker or a busted draw. Since we know nothing about the villian, it comes down to your gut. If you think theres at least a 30% chance he could be bluffing you call. Your pot odds are 2.5 - 1, so you should call a majority of the time.

PG

[nightlyraver]

bump!

[PokerGoblin]

I think a lot of the regulars on the forum are outta town, I posted a hand last night that got very few views and one response.

I am curious as to others' opinions, because I think it is an interesting situation that happens rather frequently.

Later

PG

[nightlyraver]

I agree - it's a hand that really is beaten on the turn almost always. However, we don't know that until the CR on the turn. Can you avoid losing the turn bet? Should you even bet the flop? Should you go broke/double up on this hand? These are all questions that are usually answered with a read of some kind. Here, there is no read. Also, the stacks are all relatively the same and are at 30BB's. But the pot is also large since many called the preflop raise.

[EverettKings]

When he calls the 3/4 pot be on the flop, it makes it somewhat unlikely that he's on a draw. Though its still possible. More likely is a King or two pair, like 89, or a set. I would check the turn behind and fold the river to a reasonable bet. Just because draws exist on this board doesn't mean he has to have one, especially given the action. You might as well be on a pure bluff the way you played the hand.

Kings