Tough or Easy Decision?

oscark · #1 07-06-2005, 04:19 PM

This was a loose game with 4-6 to the flop the norm.

UTG is 46/25/0.9. MP2 is 31/6/1.3

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, 4 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, BB folds.

Turn: (7.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

River: (11.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, UTG calls, Hero ...

Nightwish · #2 07-06-2005, 04:25 PM

You cannot overcall, especially since there's another player left to act who also went to the river with something.

hockey1 · #3 07-06-2005, 04:28 PM

Whiffed this one. Raise the flop. Raise the turn.

oscark · #4 07-06-2005, 04:38 PM

I can see at least an argument for raising the turn. But the flop? I could see doing so with 7s, but 5s on that board?

MrStretchie · #5 07-06-2005, 05:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I can see at least an argument for raising the turn. But the flop? I could see doing so with 7s, but 5s on that board?

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Yes, I also raise that flop. Decent chance of isolating, if the pfr is on overcards, and your 5's may be good if UTG is on a draw. Since he's passiveish postflop, he's probably got a higher pair rather than a draw, but if so, you'll likely buy yourself a free turn card for your gutshot/backdoor flush draws.
Plus you'll have an easier time reading UTG (and other callers') hands this way, although that's just an added perk, and not a main reason to do it.

Nightwish · #6 07-06-2005, 07:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I can see at least an argument for raising the turn. But the flop? I could see doing so with 7s, but 5s on that board?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I also raise that flop. Decent chance of isolating, if the pfr is on overcards, and your 5's may be good if UTG is on a draw. Since he's passiveish postflop, he's probably got a higher pair rather than a draw, but if so, you'll likely buy yourself a free turn card for your gutshot/backdoor flush draws.
Plus you'll have an easier time reading UTG (and other callers') hands this way, although that's just an added perk, and not a main reason to do it.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you're turning this into an exercise in chip spewing. You've set up a highly improbable scenario where UTG only has a draw and the PFR has overcards and everyone else has crap. Oh, and all you have is third pair with a gutshot. There are times when you need to slow down and consider the fact that you cannot win every pot. This is one of them.

MrStretchie · #7 07-06-2005, 08:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I also raise that flop. Decent chance of isolating, if the pfr is on overcards, and your 5's may be good if UTG is on a draw. Since he's passiveish postflop, he's probably got a higher pair rather than a draw, but if so, you'll likely buy yourself a free turn card for your gutshot/backdoor flush draws.
Plus you'll have an easier time reading UTG (and other callers') hands this way, although that's just an added perk, and not a main reason to do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're turning this into an exercise in chip spewing. You've set up a highly improbable scenario where UTG only has a draw and the PFR has overcards and everyone else has crap. Oh, and all you have is third pair with a gutshot. There are times when you need to slow down and consider the fact that you cannot win every pot. This is one of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm.. so you're saying you'd fold this flop, getting 11.5:1? UTG is a fish - I'm thinking his most likely holding right now is TP, maybe with a gutshot, where I have two of his outs. Maybe he has an overpair and didn't raise preflop, and maybe he has a set, but those are both less likely. He has a vpip of 46% or something, right? (A made straight is very unlikely, since I hold 2 of the 5's..)

As for the PFR, he will usually have overs to this flop. If not, he's got an overpair, but you've still got a good draw against him if he stays in..

And anyone else - even if they have a hand that annhilates me like t9 or a 7, they're not likely to call 2 bets with a gutshots and weak overs.

The pot is getting large.. I really think you have to raise here. If UTG were solid, I'd be more worried about a set and would probably lean toward folding.

I respect your play though, so if you still tell me I'm FOS (or others do too), I'd be inclined to believe it. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Nightwish · #8 07-06-2005, 09:51 PM

The bottom line is that (a) UTG needs to be on a draw and (b) everyone else needs to have missed. Nobody is folding a better hand (unless it's a 6 with no draw). I would call UTG's bet and reassess on the turn.

MrStretchie · #9 07-06-2005, 10:06 PM

But.. in my last post, UTG was on top pair, and the raise still worked out. The only hands that could've hit and would call two cold here are sets and flush draws, right? So if the flush hits or the board pairs, you know you're likely in trouble. Otherwise you have pot odds (with the raise) to draw out on UTG if he's got a pair, and obviously you're ahead if he's got a draw.

I'm not arguing that it's necessarily a better play than just calling. But I certainly think it's a close thing. And there are meta-game advantages..

jediael · #10 07-07-2005, 01:02 AM

Why didn't you raise the flop? There's a decent chance you have got the best hand along with your draw.