40k Breakeven stretch (stats/cry for help)

balkii · #1 07-06-2005, 03:48 PM

Well. The nice thing about losing for 40k hands is that you really get put to the test. Kinda like the time I took a 13hour plane flight to taiwan. From here on out, any plane flight that is less than 13 hours should be cake.

Anyways. I moved up to 10/20 earlier this year. Ran decent. I have 140k at 5/10 6max at ~2.4/100. Wasnt really doing that well at 10/20. Its a tougher game for sure. Anyways. Just thought I would post some stats - maybe I'm missing some glaring leak. I'm not a fan of stats posts; this is my first one though and it does have 40 thousand hands.

Heres some stuff I'd like you guys to take a look at:

All of 10/20 General Info:

So, I know I'm a winning player at the 10/20. I have the roll, I have what it takes to beat the game. I'm not really interested in dropping down.

Last 40k at 10/20

My thoughts :

- I know a lot of you will say I need to loosen up. I'm just not convinced yet. 23 is a pretty fair VPIP. Regardless I dont think playing those extra supermarginal hands are what will get me out of the slump.

- I could steal more. See above. Its tough to steal more when you run shitty because your image just blows. Nobody ever folds. They play back at you with nothing. Its not good.

- I might not be getting to showdown enough. Very possibly folding some winners (and I often feel like this) but my W$SD isnt really that high either.

Not sure what else.

I have recently retired the screenname that I played all the last 70k or so under - if you have any comments on my play under the name SpicyG please speak up ( Disclaimer: Those of you that have played with me will notice that I can sometimes become a little ... "vocal." I would like to apologize in advance. I know its counterproductive. I know I don't have the right. I do actively strive towards shutting up more and more. I have talked [censored] to more than one twoplustwoer. I try to leave the donks alone but when a TAG puts a beat on me sometimes I just lose it. Again I apologize. )

Anyways I hope this post is within the new rules of the HUSH forum. Thanks for your help

Mig · #2 07-06-2005, 03:54 PM

Turn agrro of 3.10 is really high I find... I think it would mean that you are not getting enough credit to the donk and 3 bet too much when you are beaten... Same for the flop I'd think... IMO...

PokerBob · #3 07-06-2005, 04:01 PM

how many tables?

Grisgra · #4 07-06-2005, 04:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
how many tables?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya beat me to it.

SomethingClever · #5 07-06-2005, 04:07 PM

The thing that strikes me is how identical both sets of stats are.

My guess is that you're simply a 1.x bb/100 winner who's running at -1.x bb/100.

Sucks, obviously.

balkii · #6 07-06-2005, 04:19 PM

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />
how many tables?

[/ QUOTE ]

<eyes averted, and mumbling> four

started 10/20 with probably 1, then just gradually pushed it up as i got comfortable. each time i move up a limit i drop the tables down to one and then two. but generally have fourtabled for my last 300k hands or so. and feel pretty comfortable with it.

the last week i have been 2-3 tabling

sthief09 · #7 07-06-2005, 04:30 PM

I've played with you a good amount. all those times you were kind of just there (and actually didn't write anything), so I haven't noticed anything particular. the numbers look pretty solid, but you're probably doing too much folding. I'd rather give someone a free card than let him check-raise or raise me in a situation where I'll puke and ahve to makea really borderline decision on whether to call down. effective odds on the turn aren't usually that great, so a check-raise giving you 4-1 effectively to call down puts you in a bind. by checking behind you get him to bet most hands he'd fold to a bet, only at the cost of a 6 outer. I really do think this is the key to beating 10/20. you get to see lots of showdowns against habitual bluffers and you can duck a lot of check-raises, which you'll be the target of because you raise so mucht hat they think you're full of it. distinguishing when to bet and when to check really is an art but having it in your reportoire (sp?) is a good first step. GET TO SHOWDOWN. I can't reiterate that enoguh. your turn aggression at 3.1 is opening you up to too many bet/fold situations, whcih are guaranteed to lose you pots. maybe you give free shots to 6 outers but I'd rather let someone catch 12% of a 5 BB pot than bet and get bluffed and let him take 3/4 or 1/2 (theoretically. I will expand ont hsi if you'd like. it's vague) of it from you.

it seems like your strategy is bet until you meet resistance or until youcan get a free shwodown. I think this is a great way to beat 5/10 but a good way to put yourself in uncomfortable situations that lead to you folding way too much.

I don't get why your won at sd is so low either. maybe you're paying off with the wrong hands? I don't get it. can't be 100k hands of bad luck

Derek in NYC · #8 07-06-2005, 04:35 PM

Wow, sthief, your comments are really goddamn smart.

PokerBob · #9 07-06-2005, 04:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Wow, sthief, your comments are really goddamn smart.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can someone so smart be so dumb (not go to Vegas)? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Ryno · #10 07-06-2005, 04:46 PM

I've played with you some, and sthief is exactly right with everything he says - perfect advice. The bad players in 5-10 are too loose-passive so you bet them to death. The bad players in 10-20 and especially higher are too fancy and aggressive given the # of hands they play, so you showdown them to death.