Gutshot Straight + Flush Draw on Flop

[Atropos]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Hero ($95)
Button ($54.85)
SB ($93.4)
BB ($145.9)
UTG ($104.95)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $2</font>, Hero calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB (poster) raises to $4.5</font>, BB calls $4, UTG calls $3, Hero calls $3.

Flop: ($20) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $20</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $125</font>, UTG folds, Hero ???

This hand seems strictly mathematical to me, however I dont know how to crunch the numbers. Here is my try:
- BB was a crazy maniac who seemed to have no idea of proper poker. But he was rather passive, so you cant put him on a stone cold bluff there. His range of hands was still unclear to me, I would consider Two Pair/Set/Overpair/TPTK/Straight Draw/Flush Draw... However the last 3 are rather improbable.

He was so bad that I would not mind losing my stack on a 50:50 situation against him, because it seemed I could easily get them back against him. Maybe even a 40:60 situation thus slightly -EV would be ok there...

- The SB was rather tight preflop, not soo good postflop. His range preflop is pretty much AK/AQ/AA-TT, maybe some more hands. At the flop I expect him to fold everything except AKs/AQs right suits. But it is still possible he would call with AA+KK there too.

OK lets consider that SB will automatically fold:
- There is 40$ dead money in the pot. I have to put in 90$ to win a pot of 220$ (2x 90$ + 40$, is that wrong thinking?)
So my "break-even point" would be a chance of 40.9% to win.

Some scenarios:
- J9s against BB's two pair: ~ 45% : 55%
- J9s against BB's set: ~ 33% : 67%
- J9s against BB's Overpair: ~ 47% : 53%
- J9s against BB's Straight Draw: 81% : 19% [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
- J9s against BB's higher Flush Draw: 27% : 73%
- J9s against BB's TPTK: 57% : 43%

Against BB alone I seem to be in very good shape. Putting him on a very bad range of hands for me, 50% two pair and 50% set I would be around 39% chance of winning. Thats of course -EV but only marginally, and because he is so bad the chips are worth to him less than to me. I think against him I can safely make the call here...

Now there is the problem that SB has yet to act. The hands I fear most are AKs and AQs of the right suit, they would kill my chances of winning. There seem to be no other hands SB has that could kill me in this pot.

OK how I want to know:
a) Do you like a call here?
b) How do you explain it? How do you compute the chances of SB having AKs/AQs right suit, chances he will call with AA/KK and make an overall model for my equity in this hand?

[Keiju]

I dont think your reason for calling is very good [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img] the odds are heavily stacked against you, and so are the pot odds. This is pure gambling if you call.

The pre-flop call in itself is a bit dodgy, i can see the $2 call but the re-raise from the small blind probaly shouldnt have been called.

Also that £125 raise says he has TPTK or huge pockets and dosnt want anyone to outdraw him, he may have even had a flush draw AND TPTK which would be suicide for you.
Most likely overpair it seems though.

Personally I try to avoid all 50:50 situations when its a big call, but if your the one raising in a 50:50 situation tahts fine since you have fold equity.

[Atropos]

" the odds are heavily stacked against you, and so are the pot odds."

Seems like nonsense to me.

"Also that £125 raise says he has TPTK or huge pockets and dosnt want anyone to outdraw him, he may have even had a flush draw AND TPTK which would be suicide for you.
Most likely overpair it seems though. "

Overpair is no problem for me, TPTK + Flush Draw is impossible at this flop. Middle Pair + Flush Draw doesnt change the situation at all... It's nearly the same as AKs right suits...

[Keiju]

"TPTK + Flush Draw is impossible at this flop" forget i ever said anything about that. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

But anyway its most likely he has overpair, which gives you a slight bad overall outcome so why would you bother with such a huge call. Maybe if you had an open straight with flush draw you could call.

[Atropos]

"But anyway its most likely he has overpair, which gives you a slight bad overall outcome so why would you bother with such a huge call. Maybe if you had an open straight with flush draw you could call."

If BB has an overpair it is an obvious CALL. The only thing that makes this hand complicated is SB to act behind me... Do you see why?

[spoohunter]

I'm not so sure SB is laying down an overpair for only $70. If you get all the money in against two overpairs you have by FAR the best of it. I think this is a call.