PL O8

[Billy LTL]

A loose, generally passive game with a single $3 blind, me, with biggest stack and the biggest nothing hand. Something like K972 rainbow. Five players limp, I rap.

The flop is 8c6s5c giving me the nut straight. Sigh. Been there, done that. How bad is a fold here? How bad is a fold here considering a couple of players (or more) players will call to the end with two pair hoping for the high half?

I don't fold of course and I don't checkraise either. I bet the pot ($18). All five call ($126 in the pot). Well, okay I guess.

The turn is a Qs. 8c6s5c(Js). My hand is still good for half the pot. I bet the pot. With misgivings, I might add. Same five callers. $882 in the pot.

The river is a 5s. 8c6s5cJs(5s). A no-brainer check from me. Guy to my left bets the pot, one caller, guy to my right raises. I fold obviously. Guy to my left scoops with 66655 and low with A2568. Guy to my right made A-high flush.

So against this kind of line-up, this kind of hand and that kind of flop how bad is folding a (temporary) nut-straight on the flop? I think it's a +ev play. Anybody disagree?

And comments re play on other streets welcome too.

Billy

[Guy McSucker]

In the not unlikely event that someone has trips and someone else has a flush draw, you'll only survive for high 40% of the time, and this doesn't include higher straights and unlikely backdoor hands from people holding A-2. Someone surely has a low already. So all in all you're going to win half the pot less than 40% of the time.

Why bother with this hand? There must be better situations.

Guy.

[Graham]

Check out the Semantics of Expectation thread on the Probability forum, started by Rick Nebiolo. Folding is $0 EV, always.

Anyhow, it's probably the best option here - half the pot's already gone and you have to dodge bullets to try and win the other half. There's peanuts out there, so like Guy says - why bother.

G