Set of kings, river decision

SkittleBrau · #1 07-05-2005, 02:15 AM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Button is quite loose and passive, especially preflop (47/0 af 1). He gives up a lot of hands on the river, presumably the ones that totally miss because he will often show down bottom pair, etc.

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB completes, Hero raises, MP calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP folds, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, SB folds.

River: (7.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

Hero's river plan?

jph0424 · #2 07-05-2005, 02:26 AM

I would bet and make a crying call if raised. If he will showdown anything that remotely hits, checking this river is criminal.

Stack · #3 07-05-2005, 02:47 AM

The river bet is easy.

If he raises, you need to be good 10% of the time to make a call correct. Against a very passive opponent against whom I have played a lot (not just datamined stats) I can(hopefully) find a fold, otherwise, I call the raise.

wheelz · #4 07-05-2005, 02:48 AM

The only decision is whether to call if raised. If he's as passive on the river as you say, and your read is over enough hands, then bet/fold seems best.

SkittleBrau · #5 07-05-2005, 03:02 AM

Read is over only like 150 hands. Bet-fold kind of seemed right, but I'm not sure if he can raise with something like two pair or a lower set here, and I'd hate to fold in this spot if he could make a raise with those hands.

Stack · #6 07-05-2005, 03:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Read is over only like 150 hands. Bet-fold kind of seemed right, but I'm not sure if he can raise with something like two pair or a lower set here, and I'd hate to fold in this spot if he could make a raise with those hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, in this situation, I beleive that if you have doubts you have to call because of the size of the pot.

If you reads are only from stats, you might not have noticed that he can pulls a raise in this situation without the straight. Fold if you are CONFIDENT that you are good less than 10% of the time here. You have a set and this is a bluff inviting board. This is a situation where, imo, datamined stats can be dangerous. You need actual reads to let this pot go.

wheelz · #7 07-05-2005, 03:16 AM

I agree, sounds like a bet/call.

SkittleBrau · #8 07-05-2005, 03:19 AM

I was only playing one table so I'd been watching all these 150 hands... but that's not really alot. I hadn't seen him pull any weird river raises -- and I wouldn't be posting at all if I had, since I would then have no hesitation in calling.