Curious hand against a perceived decent player.

[TRWIII]

UTG hasnt done anything to flag him as anything worse than a decent player (playing on Noble Poker so I dont get pretty PT stats).

I get JJ in the BB.

UTG raises, MP2 and MP3 CC, I three bet, UTG caps, everyone calls.

Thoughts: Thats not what I wanted to see. Put him on reasonable capping hands JJ-AA, AKs, amd maybe AK and AQs.

Flop: 4 9 4 rainbow (16.5 SB)

I bet intending to get UTG to raise out the other two and get it heads up (feedback on this reasoning would be appreciated).

UTG calls ?? and the other two fold ???.

Thoughts: Im in a much better mood. I raise the odds of AKs, AK, or AQs a good bit. I suspect I may very well be ahead.

Turn: 4 9 4 [Q] completing the rainbow. (9.25 BB)

I bet, UTG calls.

River is a deuce (11.25 BB).

Who bets the river? Who plays any street differently?

Any thoughts are appreciated.

TRWIII

[avisco01]

I'm probably leading the river thinking UTG has UI AK. If UTG had raised the turn I'd be worried, just calling the turn indicates to me that he's drawing to his six outs with AK. I'm not giving him credit for a higher PP even though he capped preflop.

[avisco01]

One thing about 3-betting preflop with JJ, I usually don't do it. When a perceived to be decent UTG player raises, I will usually CC with JJ hoping to flop a J, smooth call the flop, check-raise the turn. I don't think you made an error by 3-betting with JJ, but I usually won't do that is all.

Betting the flop hoping UTG will raise out the other two players is a good move I think. If UTG has a higher PP you're obviously drawing slim, but I don't think isolating UTG is a terrible idea in this spot.

[MHarris]

I sort of like check-calling the river here. UTG is not folding a better hand and probably won't call with AK. Check-calling may get UTG to bet AK, plus it will save a bet in those few instances he holds QQ and had the intention of squeezing an extra bet from you on the river.

[damaniac]

The issue isn't whether he has AK UI: it sure looks like he does. The issue is whether he is more likely to call a bet with AK UI or whether he will bet AK UI if checked to. Then you need to figure out what other hands he could have, but I'm having a hard time seeing him play anything other than AK this way unless he is super passive or super weird. I really am not sure what is better against a mostly unknown. It might help to know if we are going to call a river raise here or not.

[TRWIII]

I'll go ahead and give the river action, but keep the results to see if I can generate a little more discussion.

I bet and was called (i was planning on calling one back to me, although Im pretty sure thats a bad idea in retrospect).

I think I butchered the river all around, but Ill see what the board thinks.

TRWIII

[Buck_65]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing about 3-betting preflop with JJ, I usually don't do it. When a perceived to be decent UTG player raises, I will usually CC with JJ hoping to flop a J, smooth call the flop, check-raise the turn. I don't think you made an error by 3-betting with JJ, but I usually won't do that is all.

Betting the flop hoping UTG will raise out the other two players is a good move I think. If UTG has a higher PP you're obviously drawing slim, but I don't think isolating UTG is a terrible idea in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're passing up a LOT of equity and losing a lot of money because of it. Good players have a wide range of hands they raise UTG that you're way ahead of. Plus, you have 2 other players along for the ride. To not 3-bet preflop with JJ here is worse than raising 27o UTG IMO.

[TRWIII]

I have to agree with buck on this one. I'll three bet jacks from any position as long as I dont have an uber accurate read on the initial raiser. Too much equity gets flushed otherwise. The only other exception is if I think the raise is a steal that Im planning to punish post flop. And I do this so seldom that I dont remember the last time I did it (back in February I think). Three bet and sleep easy knowing that that change will make you money in the long term, especially at this limit.

TRWIII

[avisco01]

[/ QUOTE ]You're passing up a LOT of equity and losing a lot of money because of it. Good players have a wide range of hands they raise UTG that you're way ahead of. Plus, you have 2 other players along for the ride. To not 3-bet preflop with JJ here is worse than raising 27o UTG IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

My mistake, I'll start playing JJ more aggressively PF and see how it goes.

[Jake (The Snake)]

If the OP's range is accurate, then check/calling the river is 100% correct.

The ONLY hand in that range that you beat is AK, and you have a better chance of making money from AK by inducing a bluff. When your opponent doesn't have AK, you lose less.