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#1
07-01-2005, 12:58 PM
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Commerce 9/18 hand -- AJ
My first real hand at this table, but I've been folding for an orbit or so. If anyone knows the 9/18, it's a pretty juicy game.
4 limpers to me in the SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I complete, and the BB checks. 6 to the flop for 6sb. Flop comes T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I check, and it checks to a fairly loose, marginally aggressive CO (last to act), who bets. I raise. Folded to the CO who 3-bets. I call. Turn is Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I check, he bets, I call. River is K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I check... 
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#3
07-01-2005, 01:09 PM
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Re: Commerce 9/18 hand -- AJ
I agree but now that you hit the nut straight im partial for a donk bet here. Unfortunately you do not have any reads but this guy seems to like his hand and was aggresive with it on the flop I would give him the chance to raise you on the river so you can put a 3 bet out there
Im assuming any hand he bets out at the river he probably raises with on a board like that
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#4
07-01-2005, 01:33 PM
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Re: Commerce 9/18 hand -- AJ
</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar på:</font><hr />
I'd fold the turn. [/ QUOTE ] I think this is the most questionable street. I'm getting 7:1 but I don't know how clean my pair outs are (I could be reverse dominated by AT or JT, he could have 2 pair, etc.), and the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is possibly tainted (though I don't put him on a flush draw when he declines the free card, and because his draw wouldn't be the nut draw since I have the A of trump). But if he has something like T9, I have 10 clean outs. Since I'm putting him on something better than T9, I'm thinking it's between 4 and 7 outs, maybe 6-ish. That makes the call pretty thin indeed.
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#6
07-01-2005, 01:41 PM
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Re: Commerce 9/18 hand -- AJ
</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar på:</font><hr />
If you're interested, I'd also c/r the river. [/ QUOTE ] How about the flop?
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#7
07-01-2005, 02:46 PM
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Re: Commerce 9/18 hand -- AJ
does this seem like a reasonable range for villian?
[ QUOTE ] 77, 55, AJs-ATs, KTs, QdJd, QTs, JTs, ATo, KTo, JTo, 5d6d [/ QUOTE ] If so, your A and J outs have 60% equity vs this range. Your K outs should be worth 95%+(if they are worth less, your other outs are worth more). 1.8 outs for A 1.8 outs for J 4 outs for K 7.6 total outs, I call.
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#8
07-01-2005, 04:28 PM
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Re: Commerce 9/18 hand -- AJ
[ QUOTE ]
If you're interested, I'd also c/r the river. [/ QUOTE ] I think I prefer a bet, hoping to get in a 3 bet. The problem now is that if he has something like AT (pretty likely, IMO) he is liable to check behind. If he does this only 50% of the time, you are breaking even in comparison to a bet, and that's assuming that he only calls when you bet -- when he raises you it's just gravy. And it's very unlikely that he'll fold for a single bet.
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#9
07-01-2005, 04:34 PM
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Re: Commerce 9/18 hand -- AJ
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If you're interested, I'd also c/r the river. [/ QUOTE ] I think I prefer a bet, hoping to get in a 3 bet. The problem now is that if he has something like AT (pretty likely, IMO) he is liable to check behind. If he does this only 50% of the time, you are breaking even in comparison to a bet, and that's assuming that he only calls when you bet -- when he raises you it's just gravy. And it's very unlikely that he'll fold for a single bet. [/ QUOTE ] I feel the same way. It's also possible that this is a busted flush draw now too. I don't think it would be unreasonable to see it played that way. Also, I do think the turn is the most interesting street. I really don't think we have enough for a call there.
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