#1
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OESD, overcards, and reads. Did I overthink this?
Button in this hand sees around 40% of flops, and loves to bluff at scary rivers. However, ~2 hands ago I called his bluff HU on a 4 flush board with unimproved KK and took down the pot. He definitely is paying attention enough to remember who I am. On the turn, CO has 1.5 BB left, and as far as I know is generally very passive. How's my turn play?
Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls. Flop: (8.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button calls, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO calls, Button calls. Since CO is passive I'm sure I'm behind here. But when he slows down, I'm pretty sure he's scared of what I'm holding. Turn: (8.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font> ... At this point, CO has 1.5 BBs left. I'm pretty sure he'll call if I bet, and he'll bet if checked too. I figure if a bet is going in on the turn anyway, I might as well put it in myself to try to fold out the button and buy some outs. I know the button respects my bets / raises, but I have no idea how he feels about the CO. Did I overthink this play? |
#2
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Re: OESD, overcards, and reads. Did I overthink this?
I'd like it better if you were HU with the short stack.
Since button coldcalled the flop, I wouldn't 3-bet CO's raise because I'd rather check/call than bet a turn brick into 2 opponents with a drawing hand OOP. Once you 3-bet, you're pretty much committed to leading the turn since checking would be kinda gay. |
#3
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Re: OESD, overcards, and reads. Did I overthink this?
I like it.
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#4
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Re: OESD, overcards, and reads. Did I overthink this?
i think you played it fine because you'll be betting out almost any card that comes anyways. and you have the nut flush draw if a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] falls.
what exactly isn't a turn blank here? the only card i'm nervous to see actually is my Q since it puts 4 to a straight and i have to river a K to win. you have 8 outs to improve if he makes trips or 2 pair on the turn anyways, so you can easily check/fold the river UI if raised here. |
#5
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Re: OESD, overcards, and reads. Did I overthink this?
[ QUOTE ]
I'd like it better if you were HU with the short stack. Since button coldcalled the flop, I wouldn't 3-bet CO's raise because I'd rather check/call than bet a turn brick into 2 opponents with a drawing hand OOP. Once you 3-bet, you're pretty much committed to leading the turn since checking would be kinda gay. [/ QUOTE ] I agree. You overplayed this. |
#6
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Re: OESD, overcards, and reads. Did I overthink this?
[ QUOTE ]
Since button coldcalled the flop, I wouldn't 3-bet CO's raise because I'd rather check/call than bet a turn brick into 2 opponents with a drawing hand OOP. [/ QUOTE ] I like your line actually. The original reason I 3bet was because I figured I had 8 outs for a straight + ~2 outs for my overcards + 1.5 for the backdoor flush. The 3 bet was supposed to be for value. I know this puts me in a bad place oop on the turn, but I figured it was more important to put value bets in on the flop with a strong draw. Does anyone think I'm being too optimistic when counting outs? |
#7
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Re: OESD, overcards, and reads. Did I overthink this?
Yes, you overthunk it, because even passive players will bet like maniacs when they're short-stacked.
Because you only have the one-card straight, I think I'd like it more if you just called this flop raise and checked the turn. You don't have good implied odds when your opponent is out of chips. |
#8
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Re: OESD, overcards, and reads. Did I overthink this?
I think you're right to bet, here. Having pressed the flop OOP like you did, not betting screams, "I'm on a draw," and you're getting bet into. Perhaps betting out yourself will keep it to one bet on the turn.
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#9
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Re: OESD, overcards, and reads. Did I overthink this?
[ QUOTE ]
...I figured I had 8 outs for a straight + ~2 outs for my overcards + 1.5 for the backdoor flush. The 3 bet was supposed to be for value. I know this puts me in a bad place oop on the turn, but I figured it was more important to put value bets in on the flop with a strong draw. Does anyone think I'm being too optimistic when counting outs? [/ QUOTE ] A little optimistic. I don't think you can count all 8 straight outs since you may be playing for a tie if someone else has a queen. Your Q overcards are not very good because it would put a 4-straight on the board and you A overcards are probably weak as well with the possibility of reverse domination. Both overcards are also weakened by the broadway-heavy board which is much more likely than rags to hit someone with 2 pair or more. Given that and the fact that your implied odds are reduced by CO's short stack, I would just call the flop raise, check/call the turn, and check/fold the river UI. |
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