Pot odds, raises, and mistakes...

[R_Ellender]

I read another post with the following scenario...

Player A has A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] with 100 in chips, and his opponent, Player B, has 100 in chips.

The flop came 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. The pot contained 0 chips. Player A bet 99 on a semi-bluff, and Player B re-raised allin, putting 199 in the pot. It costs 1 for Player A to call, giving him 199:1 on a flush draw. Everyone agreed he should call.

Let's make the scenario a little more complete. First of all, let's assume there is 10 in the pot to begin with, because I don't think Player A would risk 99 to win 0 on a semi-bluff.

Next, let's give player B a hand. Let's say he has K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], giving him top set. Player A made a critical mistake on the flop, according to the Fundamental Theorem, because his intended semi-bluff has actually become a value bet because the chances of Player B folding top set hardly exist(in other words, Player A wouldn't have made the bet had he seen Player B's hand, and Player B won't fold top set unless he has no brain in his skull). While you shouldn't consider money you have placed into the pot as yours anymore, I think that should only apply to money you have invested in a previous round(such as preflop). In other words, though Player A's bet is no longer his, it shouldn't have been made in the first place, because his true pot odds after betting into the set would be 11:10(because the player with the set will raise). Player A is taking the worst of it in this scenario. He failed to read his opponents hand and playing style correctly.

Here's another scenario that makes Player A's bet somewhat correct. Let's say Player A reads Player B to have 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and he knows Player B is bad enough to put all his money in on any kind of pair. Now, when Player A makes his bet and gets raised, since he knew he would get raised, he was willingly taking 11:10 odds based on his read of his opponents hand and playing style. However, he is a favorite to win, so he is not taking the worst of it in this situation, though he is pushing a small edge.

I could be wrong here, but I think betting and then getting raised by a better hand is similar to Sklansky's discussion of calling out of position and then being raised in the Pot Odds chapter of TOP. Both are mistakes where your odds aren't as good as they seem. If you misread your opponent and your bet or out-of-position call gets raised, then your pot odds are never as good as they seem.

I may be wrong though lol. Enlighten me.

[Stephen H]

I think it's pretty clear that betting 99 into a 10 pot (or 0!) with that holding is a mistake without pretty unusual specific reads on your opponent (such as willing to go all in on bottom pair, AND he has bottom pair).
However, it certainly doesn't change whether you should call or fold for that last 1 chip. There's 209 chips in the pot, and you have about 25% pot equity..putting in that one chip earns you a little over 50 chips, while folding earns you 0. So even though you've already made a mistake on the hand, that doesn't mean you should make another, even larger, mistake by folding for 1 chip.
This is why you won't see people advocating raising 10xpot after the flop; it's almost certainly a mistake.