Keep betting?

[Bill Lumberg]

Pre-Flop: Hero is button with Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, UTG+2 raises, 4 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG+2 caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.5 SB) J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls.

He capped PF, so he could have KK or AA, but more likely he doesn’t. You have the OESD on the board. Villain is TP. You are much more likely to improve than him.

Turn: (5.75 BB) A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls.

Given villain’s aggression, I’d say it’s very likely that he has an ace. You still have your OESD, so are more likely to improve than him. I’ll bet because I know I would call a bet anyways and he may fold.

River: T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls.

Now I’m not so sure about the A because he didn’t c/r the turn. Maybe he’s afraid of two pair or a straight because he’s tight passive. So, I still must give him some credit for an ace. The Th takes value away also, since he could have had a pair of tens with an overcard and is looking to c/r the river.

[Fat Nicky]

I'd check behind on the river. I can't see what you hands that someone caps with pre-flop that you beat at this point.

[QTip]

If he's tight passive (I'm assuming that's what you meant by TP), I'm checking behind here.

[sekrah]

Definently check on the river.. He's not calling with anything that can't beat that Jack.

[jb9]

Am I the only one who thinks checking the turn makes sense against a tight player?

I guess if villain has KK you might maybe get him to fold with the turn bet, and you do have some outs if he checkraises, but what would a tight passive have capped preflop from early position that isn't ahead on the turn?

Looks to me like he has AK or KK and is worried you have him beat.

[Bill Lumberg]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one who thinks checking the turn makes sense against a tight player?

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought about checking the turn, but what about the chance he'll fold plus the OESD I still have? That made me bet because I knew I would call anyways.

[jb9]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one who thinks checking the turn makes sense against a tight player?

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought about checking the turn, but what about the chance he'll fold plus the OESD I still have? That made me bet because I knew I would call anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, if you check you don't have to worry about calling until you find out if you hit your straight...

If you are behind AK or KK, your Q outs are no good, and there are fewer Ks to help you hit the OESD, so instead of 10 outs you only have 6-7 against AK or KK. I'm not great with math/odds, but I don't think that is enough for a value bet.

Whether or not the bet is a good thing probably depends on how often he'll fold KK and how often he will have capped preflop with hands like KJ, 88, or worse.

[deception5]

I guess the turn bet is ok if you think the villian won't check/raise you and could actually laydown KK/QQ despite having a gutshot. I can't think of any other hand you're ahead of though and you can't fold to a check/raise so I think I would check behind on the turn.

[SmileyEH]

I think I'll just checkbehind on the turn, and call a bet unimproved on the river. His weird flop play makes me want to see his cards.

-SmileyEH

[Bill Lumberg]

QQ, split pot.