Quick preflop question (88 in the BB)

[ElAnimal]

Say hero is in the BB with 88. MP3 (30/10/1.5) open raises. Button (solid TAG) re-raises. Does BB get involved, or is this a no-brainer fold?

Now move MP3 to CO. Does that turn it into a call for anyone?

[krimson]

With a solid tag 3-betting I think I would fold. Even if our hand has a bit of equity, we're out of position and the TAG is certainly going to make our lives difficult in this situation.

His 3-bet might not be a solid 3-bet worthy hand as he is likely trying to isolate, but we can be sure he has at least overcards to our 8's. This makes us at best a coin-flip and there is still a reasonable chance he has a real hand in which we are dominated.

[Bob T.]

I think its a fold. Between them, they could either hold an overpair to your hand, or more likely 3 or 4 overcards to your hand, and unless you flop a set, you will be playing the rest of the hand uncertainly and out of position against two players who have shown aggression in this hand.

[QTip]

Glad you posted this as I've been trying to do some thinking with mid and small pairs. But more so, I've been looking at small pairs.

First, I'll answer your question. I fold.

Now for a little hi-jacking, which I don't think you'll mind as this is directly related although without the possible isolation dynamic in your hand, in "Improve Your Poker", Ciaffone mentions that the odds of flopping a set are 7:1 against. We all know this. However, he also adds that the set (he's talking about pocket 6s here...a bit different) will get cracked about a quarter of the time. Now, that's the first time that I've heard that. I would like to discuss this here because I wonder if we sometimes overvalue a pp in a raised pot. Here's the quote from pages 14-15.

"One thing you can depend on; if you flop a set and lose, it will cost you plenty.

I like to see the flop on pocket sixes, but cannot afford to pay through the nose to do it. The long-run odds say that in an unraised pot I need to win about a dozen half-bets just to break even. (We use the term “half-bet” because in a normal betting structure the bet will be twice as much – a full bet – later on in the deal.) If I were guaranteed that it would only cost me one half-bet to play, I would take a chance. But if the pot is raised, it costs me 2 half-bets, and now need to win a couple of dozen half-bets just to break even for the times I miss the flop or get a set cracked. This is much harder to do. If I had to call a raise cold, I have a clear fold. But if most of the pots are being raised or reraised, it is foolish to tell yourself, “Maybe I can sneak in for a single bet.” (He’s talking about loose wild games here)

The thinking on any drawing hand should be much the same as your thinking on our example hand of 66. To have an overlay, you must see the flop cheaply. This entails not calling a double bet before the flop. I n a game where most posts are being raised, it means not falling for the “installment payment” trap. Fold for even a single bet if the pot will likely be raised behind you.”

Thoughts on this?

[mtdoak]

You need 5-1 to call profitably with a mid pair....your getting 6.5-2. Your at best a coinflip here and are probably ducking if you miss your set on the flop.

[soweak.]

This is an easy fold. You are out of position against two aggressive players. Against just a LAG you could call, but OOP against a solid player you will need to hit a favorable flop to continue. However it would be an easy call had the TAG on the button not 3-bet preflop.