Understanding Poker Equity

[Bill Lumberg]

I’m new to poker and thought it would be a good idea to just post my current understanding of the thought process of analyzing your hands as you play as sort of an essay and then let the veteran 2+2ers correct it like professors.

The only factor that goes into whether or not you make money is if the sum of the equities of the choices you make is positive. So, our thought process at the table shouldn’t be so much about if we have the best hand or not, or on winning any one particular hand, just the percentage of the time we will win (given all of the circumstances) compared to the pot size. This will then tell us the right course of action. Therefore, you want to train yourself to be able to identify this in every situation. Obviously, you won’t have a calculator at the table, so being able to estimate as accurately as possible is the one of the best skills to have. This equity is expressed in a percentage of the time that you will win. Therefore, you must learn how to add and subtract percentages from the value of your hand for different circumstances (i.e. opponents, board texture, fold equity, etc.) to come up with the most accurate value for your hand.

Here’s how:

On the flop, you must have an idea of the percentage strength of different kinds of hands. Once you are able to identify fairly accurately this percentage strength, you take the strength of your hand (% of the time it will be the best based on what your opponents probably hold) and adjust it to the factors shown below (Am I missing any?). Is experience the only way to determine how much you should adjust for each factor?

Using these, you would add or subtract and come up with a final percentage value for your hand. To decide how much your hand is worth and if it’s positive, you would multiply this percentage by the pot size to see how much your hand is worth at that time. If it’s more than the current bet, you can bet, raise, or call. If it’s less, your equity is negative and you should fold. If it’s close, then apply implied odds or reverse implied odds to push the decision a one way or the other.

The hard part is being accurate, no?

Factors determining equity:
1. Hand strength
2. Number of opponents
3. Aggression shown
4. Fold equity
5. Board texture
6. opponent’s personality
7. Chance of being raised
8. Positive Potential
9. Negative Potential