Help with flushes

LinusKS · #1 06-26-2005, 01:07 PM

This is a common situation. You think your opponent is on a flush draw; sure enough the flush makes it on the river.

Is this an easy lay down? An easy call?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (12.40 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, BB folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds.

Turn: (7.20 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls.

River: (9.20 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+2 bets, Hero...?

Thanks.

Similar, but different.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG folds, Hero raises, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Button folds, SB calls, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, BB calls, Hero 3-bets, SB caps, BB calls, Hero calls.

River: (21.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero...?

imported_leader · #2 06-26-2005, 01:24 PM

Hand 2 you have to call. Hand 1 I'd be more tempted to muck. The number of hands that beat you if hand 1 is huge.

mannika · #3 06-26-2005, 01:26 PM

I think both of these pots are big enough that you can't fold.

In hand 1, you only need to pick off a bluff ~10% of the time for this call to be correct (I think p(bluff) is greater than this)

In hand 2, it's a bit tougher to find hands that you beat, but I still think I make a crying call with the 5% chance that BB is bluffing (unlikely), or thinks his KQ is good.

However, if I knew that villian in hand 2 was a good player, I would have a harder time calling this. His play throughout the hand is EXACTLY what a good player would do with a flush draw. Still, think you've gotta call.

sy_or_bust · #4 06-26-2005, 01:31 PM

I'll fold both. I don't see another hand for UTG+2 in hand 1. It's very likely he has a high spade and there's very little he could have that you beat (99?). In hand 2, you aren't even certain to be ahead of SB, and BB will almost always have a flush. It's a big pot, but it isn't weak to fold.

crunchy1 · #5 06-26-2005, 04:06 PM

Everyone seems to be ignoring that hand #1 is HU and hand #2 is 3-way with the SB (turn capper) left to act after Hero.

damaniac · #6 06-26-2005, 04:09 PM

Yeah, even if we have BB beat, I dunno about SB. Him waking up on the turn kind of looks like 65, though he could have a bigger set too. HU I'd call either of them, but I don't know that we're good vs. both of them often enough to make this a good call.

toss · #7 06-26-2005, 04:12 PM

In hand one its likely that UTG+2 donked some kinda flush or straight or twopair even. I don't think I'm good here one out of ten times.

In hand two I'd have to fold too. BB is calling these turn bets with probably a draw and SB may even have a higher set or better. If it was just me and BB i'd call, but SB is still there too.