Theory of Poker - Effective Odds in NL.

[wyrd]

I'm curious how important effective odds in NL are. In the Theory of Poker, he seems to mostly be talking about limit when discussing effective odds. In NL, can you properly determine what your opponent may bet on the turn? So, in other words, should I be basing my decisions off expressed and implied odds?

Example: After the flop I have a four-flush, meaning I'm 4-1 against to make my flush on the next card. If I'm offered 4-1 pot odds, should I take it, even though I may not be offered the effective odds in the long run (my opponent may bet the pot on the turn, which would not give me effective odds for the flush EDIT: if I missed it on the turn).

Thanks for your time.

[AKQJ10]

Can you please remind me of the definition of effective odds? I've read TOP but don't have it handy.

Implied odds are hugely important at large-stack NL, but especially in preflop decisions. A good NL opponent will prevent you from having odds to draw to a flush, so suitedness is not as important PF in NL. However, small pocket pairs can flop a monster, and connected cards have some stealth value in making unlikely straights, so their implied odds are very great.

In your example, assuming your call closing the betting on the flop and your flush draw is to the nut hand, implied odds are irrelevant, because if you make your flush the existing pot is paying you at 4 to 1 (expressed odds).

You could count on a small bit of implied odds, though, because you could make a bet small enough that your opponent should call it in case you don't have the flush. (Question for the experts: Isn't this potentially giving a set odds to draw out on you?) But those implied odds are much less, because it's harder to call much of a bet with three suited cards on board.

Implied odds are almost meaningless in small-stack NLHE, because the small stack planning to be all-in by the flop anyway.

[SheridanCat]

Effective odds are your odds with more than one card to come (that's for AKQJ10). If you plan to take your hand all the way to the river, as you might well do in your example, then you take into account your effective odds.

I think effective odds will come into play in NL if you plan to push all-in on the turn. If you could be pushed out on the turn and will abandon your draw if the turn doesn't help, then don't consider them.

I think effective odds are important in both limit and no-limit but they are important differently. The push all-in aspect I mentioned above is why it's important for NL. For limit, it helps a player gauge whether she can play the hand all the way profitably.

That probably doesn't make sense. Sorry for the ramble.

Regards,

T

[AKQJ10]

Oops, I answered the wrong question then. Sorry about that!

But I agree with your response -- effective odds are most important in all-in situations, because otherwise a good NL opponent will make you pay substantially more to see the river card if you miss your draw on the turn. AFAICT in NL you almost never have occasion to care about your odds of hitting the flush with two cards to come except the aforementioned all-in case.

[wyrd]

Effective odds are (hopefully I explain this right) calculating your odds to make your hand with 2 cards to come, and compare that with the amount you'll be expecting to pay to see those cards.

Example: You need one card to complete your nut flush draw, and two cards to come. The odds of against are approximately 2-1. Your opponent bets $10 with a pot of $20, giving you 3-1 pot odds. However, that may not be the end of betting, as he could bet on the turn. Let's say he'll bet $20 on the turn. Your effective odds now become $50-$30 ($20 pot + $30 in bets from opponent, and $30 to call those bets). Thus, you should fold because you will not expect to get the proper odds to hit your flush draw (you need 2-1, but are getting less than that, 50-30).

I guess in a round about way you guys pretty much answered the question. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] It doesn't seem all that important in no-limit because of the nature of betting. Your opponent can bet anything, so you cannot determine with decent accuracy what your effective odds would be.

[SheridanCat]

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I guess in a round about way you guys pretty much answered the question. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


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Yeah, you're probably right. Effective odds is, for some reason, a difficult concept.

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It doesn't seem all that important in no-limit because of the nature of betting. Your opponent can bet anything, so you cannot determine with decent accuracy what your effective odds would be.

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Well, push it all in and let the odds fall where they may. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Regards,

T

[tek]

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It doesn't seem all that important in no-limit because of the nature of betting. Your opponent can bet anything, so you cannot determine with decent accuracy what your effective odds would be.

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He cannot bet "anything". He could bet up to the amount you have in front of you if he has you covered or he can bet up to the amount he has in front of him if you have him covered...