80/160 #1: AA in SB

[Nate tha' Great]

Going to post several memorable hands from the 80/160 Bellagio game. Apologize in advance for hogging bandwidth; I played a ton of poker and think these are all worthwhile hands for discussion.

80/160 must move. There is a limp from a weaktightish player in EP. I have AA in the SB and raise. I am down a rack or two at this table and have not played many hands and have shown down even fewer. Possible that I'm perceived as steaming some but not certain. A very good player (VGP), young Asian-American ring game pro who talks on his cellphone too much, calls in the BB, limper calls.

Flop is 852 or something similar with a flush draw, I bet, VGP raises, limper folds, I 3-bet and VGP calls.

Turn pairs the 8, I bet, VGP calls.

River is an offsuit J, I bet, VGP raises, I call.

[jvphish]

and you lost

[La Brujita]

I play this the same street for street. Am I missing something subtle? I don't think reraising the river is a good idea for the usual reasons and I think you have too much hand to fold.

[bobdibble]

Well, I've never played that high, but here is my thought process...

I think you have to call. You could have just gotten owned by an 8 or JJ. Since you haven't been making it to showdown, maybe he didn't want to blast you off your hand on the turn. There is a slight chance that he has AJs or KJs to the flush draw, but you played like you have an overpair, and it wouldn't make sense for him to raise the AJ/KJ that strong on the river since there are more overpairs that beat him than overpairs that don't.

I doubt he has 55 or 22, because he raised to protect on the flop, and there is no reason for him to have done that with a made boat.

So, 80% likely hood that he has an 8 or JJ, and and 17% chance he has a single J, and 3% chance that he is bluffing you since you haven't been showing down much (although, this really depends on what street you were folding on and to what kind of action.)

[Nigel]

I play it exactly the same as well.

[rory]

I think just calling the river is okay. I first wanted to say 3-bet, but I can't see VGP paying you off with a hand like AJ if you 3-bet him on the river here and he will 4-bet you if he has you crushed with a set or something that he was slowplaying and 3-betting the river and folding to a 4-bet would be sexy but not something I'd want to do.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
I play this the same street for street. Am I missing something subtle? I don't think reraising the river is a good idea for the usual reasons and I think you have too much hand to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

The main decision here IMO is whether to check the river.

[La Brujita]

I often check and call to induce a bluff but not sure this is the situation as vgp might well have smooth called flop with draw.

For me this is in the class of hands (and this is hard to articulate) that if he hit top pair on the flop and improved I am willing to lose two bets on the river because I think I will make more value betting and being called down by various hands.

He could well think you missed with AK or AQ.

[BWebb]

Check the river. The range of his hands that you beat that he will call with is very slim here. I think the chances he has a busted draw > than a worse hand that will call. Let him bluff at it.

P.S. Nice meeting you in Vegas. Jager shots on me next time [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[steveyz]

I check the river here, if this is the guy I think it is. I've only played with him once, and he's very aggressive. He will not make loose calldowns, so on the river he's either got you beat or is folding his flush draw. I'd check-call it. Very unlikely he's got a J here.