Final Table strategy. Advice sought

[redsimon]

Hi,

I was playing a £20 Pot Limit HE tourny at my local casino.The tourny has rebuys and I had invested £60. I got to the final table (ten players) with T9000. Average stack size was T20000. I was 7th biggest stack and in seat 9. Antes 1000/2000. The bb is chipleader a solid aggressive player with T49000. First hand of final I have JJ. It is folded round to me.

I bet the pot T7000, leaving me with T2000. The bb says he reraises and I call. He shows AJo. An ace on flop and I get no miracle cards and am out 10th. The payouts are £40 10th/£80 9th/£120 8th rising to £1560 1st.

I think I went in with the best hand and was unlucky. Interestingly the next three hands saw three more players exit.

One of the more experienced players commented to me that I should have folded the JJ and waited for the shorter stacks to bust (hindsight is wonderful I guess!).

I am interested in what more experienced posters here would do *in my shoes*. Would you be patient and wait for a bigger pair or for the field to thin out. I could survive 17/18 hands before my stack size got critical.

Thanks


redsimon </font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />


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[ohkanada]

You certainly went into the hand with the best hand. I would have played it the same as you. You win that hand you move into an average chip position and have a realistic expectation of a top 3 position.

Ken Poklitar

[pokerlover]

I would have have played it the same way you did. You had the best hand going in and just got unlucky.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Always be careful who you listen to. Often the advice isn't worth using your ears on. These same experts, if you had folded JJ, and later told them, most likely would've advised you to play it, as "What are you doing, waiting for AA while you get blinded down to nothing?"

You got your money in as a 3:1 favorite. Given your position and hand, it was quite likely you were going to be a 2:1 or better favorite over any hand(s) they might play. And, if they don't play, you grow your stack by over 40% without any further risk.

Plus, let's look at some numbers. You say there is about 180K in play, and first pays $1560. That means each T1000 is worth about $9, and that's just it's fair share of first place money. Add in second and third, and it's probably at least $15.

So, in order to move up from $40 to $80 or $120 in payouts, they're advising you to pass up opportunities where you're a 3:1 favorite to win a pot of T15,000? By playing this pot your equity went from T7000 (folding) to over T11,000. Just in terms of your equity in first through 3rd place money, that's an increase of at least $60. Clearly playing this hand is worth more than folding, and that's if you are GUARANTEED that you'll move up into 8th place by folding.

Don't listen to bums. Or, listen, and then use their advice to judge their play more accurately. Don't use it to change how you choose to play.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

P.S. - I realize I used $ signs instead of pounds, but I don't know how to make a pound sign easily.

[redsimon]

Thanks for the input. I think I knew the answer but was seeking reassurance after the *earbashing* I got [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img]

[Guy McSucker]

I would play it just as you did.

In late position with no callers so far, you can raise with a wide variety of hands, to steal. Given that you have a real hand, there's no choice.

The call of the reraise is also automatic, for so few chips - with any hand! With your hand you should welcome it.

An ace always comes on the flop in these situations. Unless you have AK and he has 33.

Guy.

[Moose]

You can walk away with your head held high getting eliminated in such a situation.

As others have said, you should pass up small advantages in the name of survival, but everyone folding to you and you have JJ in late position is by FAR from a small advantage. Look at how the hand played out.

By far, a golden opportunity. You have the added advantage of appearing desparate (short stack, plus it's the first hand, so they have no idea how you play) so you will get called with hands you WANT action from, such as AJo, far more often.

Good play, bad luck. That's why it's called "gambling".

M.