BTF Raise - Flop Fold

[Augie]

Online Low Limit -

UTG (loose-passive) calls, MP (decent player) calls, I raise in the cutoff with A [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] . The BB
and both limpers call.

Flop: Q [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] . UTG checks, MP bets,
I fold. All comments appreciated.

[Dynasty]

This is a classic example of weak-tight play. Not only may you be ahead of somebody betting a flush draw, but you have 7 outs against an opponent holding a Queeen.

You should raise the flop to clean up your outs.

[Augie]

Thanks for the response Dynasty. Follow up question -

If I had not raised before the flop would a raise still be correct with the pot at half the size?

[Jason Pohl]

Dynasty is correct. With 4 players in PF, there are 8.5 Small Bets in the pot. With 7 apparently clean outs, it's a clear call. Even when you consider the chance you are against another Jack, JT, or two pair, you still have sufficient odds, especially considering the higher implied odds due to your superior position.

A better play would be to raise the flop to get a free card on the turn. It should also help to protect your Ace (by knocking out a hand like A9 or AK if it's out there) and it should knock out anybody holding a weak jack like KJ). These are minor considerations compared to the advantage of getting a free card.

If there are only 4.5 bets in there, it's a fold IMO.

--Jason

[mdlm]

I see that you have the pot odds to call here, but you do not have the pot odds to raise (two bet).

You say that the raise is good because you get a free card on the turn while Dynasty says you should raise to "clean up your outs." At minimum, don't you need to attach probabilities to these things? For example, let's say that your opponent will never give you a free card on the turn after calling a raise on the flop. Then the raise is bad?!

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

A semi-bluff raise here has three objectives:

1) everybody folds and you win right here, right now. This is the number one thing you want this raise to do.

2) If you don't get everybody to fold, drive out A9 or A8 or Ax when x is the turn or river card. This is what Dynasty means by cleaning up your outs. An A is not an out for you if one of the players holds A8 or A9. You may even drive out a weak Q by raising.

3) Give the flush or straight draws incorrect pot odds to call.

Even if you're behind to the bettor, if you drive the third player out, you increase your probability of winning the hand (see HPFAP).

[Homer]

What do you mean when you say "pot odds to raise"?

-- Homer

[mitchman]

I do agree with Dynasty that you made a "weak-tight" play. If you continue to make these types of plays your image will become that of a rock and people will walk over you.

The pot has become to big for you to fold, but the board is to dangerous to opt for a raise.

Here is where i disagree w/ dynasty: if one opponent has JT without a club and the other opponent has a flush draw then your outs down to zero for a win and 2 for a chop.

Granted my example fears the worst (something that should not always be done) but you do have to be conscientious of "negated outs".

What hand could your opponent possibly have for you to have seven outs? Only KQ!!! If he has aq you are drawing to a gutter only. If he has qt you are drawing thin for the staight and 3 outs for the ace. if he has qj you are drawing to catch an ace. With all that said what if the other player has a flush draw!!! you may be dead without the possibility of runner runner flush.

I would have called and mucked on the turn if i did not improve. Remember a smooth call from you (a rock) will look suspicious and it might just buy you a free card!

As for your preflop play it was fine.. i'd only raise if i expect most of the field to come in for 2 bets, or if the game is really tight and the raise is likely to get it heads up.

[mdlm]

I mean that you don't have the odds to put two bets into the pot if all you are thinking about are the suck out chances.

[Dynasty]

I've seen you write things like "you don't have the pot odds to bet or raise" several times. A statement like that just demonstrates you haven't grasped what betting and raising is for. It has nothing to do with pot odds.