Misunderstanding pot equity

Tapin · #1 06-16-2005, 02:58 AM

I won this hand, after misplaying it pretty horribly.

MP1 was a reasonably solid player (35 hands: 21/6/2.00); MP2 was terrible (35 hands: 82/13/0.64).

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $1.
UTG (poster) checks, 1 fold, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (13 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, SB folds, Hero 3-bets, MP1 caps, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, Hero 3-bets, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

River: (21.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 24.50 BB

The reason I'm posting this hand is to be ridiculed for my terrible grasp of pot equity. After MP1's raise/call preflop, I assumed he had a very good pocket pair and was willing to give me credit (I'd had a pretty tight table image to that point), so I put him on JJ or TT. MP2 played a2c. So when MP1 raised me on the flop, I assume he'd tripped his jacks (hey, I was pretty close with my read...) but figured that since MP2 was likely to call down with anything (71% WTSD, 35% W$SD) I was right to 3-bet it and hope to hit my 3.5-outter.

After running the hand through PokerStove, though, I was only 10% to win the hand against the JJ that I expected + a2c -- and a2c was 7.5% to win the hand!

Because I obviously need remedial assistance on the topic, can someone tell me if I'm right in thinking that I needed to be at least a 34% chance to win the hand to 3-bet the flop?

UATrewqaz · #2 06-16-2005, 03:01 AM

It's a pretty simple concept really. If your % chance of winning the pot is greater than how much you must invest into it, then you should try to grow the pot as big as possible.

Example:

Say you get AK suited in a 10 handed game and you are on the button. Hypothetically let's say EVERYONE limps around to you, you should raise. Why? The odds AK taking down a field of 9 are not spectacular, but still is most likely best of everyone at the table, you may have say, a 30% chance of winning, but you are only contributing 10% of the pot. Basically you are forcing the idiots who limped in with crap who have almost no chance to sweeten the pot for you.

That's the concept in a nutshell. It basically makes the times you win the pot worth it because the pot is mucho bigger.

aK13 · #3 06-16-2005, 04:26 AM

Here's another example of equity. Say you have A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on button against BB, MP1 and CO, flop comes 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] , and BB bets, MP1 calls, CO calls -- you should raise, mainly for equity/expected value. If we only consider your flush draw, you are 35% likely to hit another diamond by the river, thus, if you raise, you risk 1SB to win .35 * 4SB = 1.3 SB.

With that said, I'd check/raise the turn and cap it if 3bet, and probably cap any river but that one (I'd probably check/call in this case). Preflop and flop are totally standard.

Eeegah · #4 06-16-2005, 04:51 AM

Speaking of value bets, here's an interesting question I spent some time working on earlier today: is it ever right to value bet overcards on the river? If not, what's the lowest thing you could possibly value bet? Assume you're heads up against the ultimate calling station--never bets, never raises, never folds.

I'll post what I worked out in the morning.

handsome · #5 06-16-2005, 05:04 AM

I play it almost the same (another way you could have played this was to check-raise the turn).

Joel_Fish · #6 06-16-2005, 11:35 AM

I think you are giving him too much credit for those jacks. He might have a lot of other hands that would make his flop raise pretty standard... KT, AJ, AQ, AK, KQ, QJ, KJ QQ, JJ, TT, T9 etc (some of these may need to be suited for him to raise preflop with) so your 3-bet was appropriate. When he caps the flop, I would put him on at least two pair or a big draw. When you consider the number of hands that he could have that you either beat or can draw out on, your flop play becomes EV+.

jrz1972 · #7 06-16-2005, 11:40 AM

I don't think you misplayed this hand at all, and I definitely dont think you misplayed it "horribly." Don't be so results-oriented.

afk · #8 06-16-2005, 11:42 AM

I think you gave MP1 a range that was way too narrow. Why limit him to jacks? Yeah, he might have TT, maybe 99, what about KQ or AQ? AJs?

bozlax · #9 06-16-2005, 11:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Speaking of value bets, here's an interesting question I spent some time working on earlier today: is it ever right to value bet overcards on the river? If not, what's the lowest thing you could possibly value bet? Assume you're heads up against the ultimate calling station--never bets, never raises, never folds.

I'll post what I worked out in the morning.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I'm holding A-anything (not 732) with a rainbow board of 33372 against your ultimate calling station. Pokerstove puts my hand at 61% equity, so any bet is for value.

bozlax · #10 06-16-2005, 11:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you misplayed this hand at all, and I definitely dont think you misplayed it "horribly." Don't be so results-oriented.

[/ QUOTE ]

OP won the hand.

But, I agree with jrz. You played it fine...maybe for the wrong reasons, but that's a different subject.