Borg 10/20 TT -- play along street by street

[MHarris]

I'm not really concerned with the way I played this hand. However, I think that going street by street here might initiate some interesting discussion and I'm always interested in hearing someone else's point of view and reasoning.

1st limper is a pretty aggressive player. Although I wouldn't say his preflop play is solid, he plays well postflop. Limper #2 plays about 80-90% of her hands and is generally all over the place. Limper #3 is stuck and playing pretty passively. I've noticed he limps with some pretty weak hands.

I'm in the CO with two black 10's. Aggressive player limps UTG, any-2 lady limps, and stuck guy all limp in, I raise, the button and blinds fold, and the limpers all call.

The flop is J83 with 2 spades. Aggressive player bets, any-2 calls, stuck guy calls, hero.....?

EDIT: I should also mention that limper #3 has also made what appear to be some pretty weak folds on later streets.

[brick]

this will be easy. fold.

[mantasm]

Can't fold, you could be ahead, and you're getting 12:1 with a couple backdoor draws and 2 clean set outs. I say call and see what happens on the turn.

[einbert]

Call.

[chief444]

Call, planning to raise a lot of turn cards.

[MHarris]

Given the player descriptions, what's your reasoning?

[Argus]

Hero calls. There might be an argument for raising, but the initial bettor is described as aggressive and playing well after the flop. Getting 3-bet by a pair of jacks or a spade draw with overcards would feel pretty awful here. Your backdoor flush might be good, but I doubt it. You have a weak backdoor straight though, if you spike a set it won't make a 3-flush, and the pot is large. These all point to seeing the turn. If a raise would protect your hand I'd advocate it, but as is I call and consider all three options on the turn depending on the card and the action.

[mantasm]

Next street, i need some action

[brick]

First off, to analyze we need to consider our equity in this situation on average which is very hard to do.

You have 3 player ahead of you, who called even though the pre-flop raiser is last to act. So I'm going to assume that each of the has at least something. (a gutshoot, backdoor flush draw, or overcards) Now you're way behind if even one of them has a J. Given that you raised preflop there is no reason to expect that a J will raise.

Your relative position stinks. Very tough to clear the field. And most cards will reduce your equity even further.

Calling and re-analyzing is probably fine but don't get too attached.

[MHarris]

Hero calls. I'm getting 12.5:1 with presumably clean set outs plus backdoor outs, and with this group of players my hand may still be best. If my hand is best, my equity will be much greater if a safe turn card falls.

Turn is another J. Aggro guy bets, any2 folds, stuck guy calls, hero.....?