AKs.....big pot with no help

Padawan Learner · #1 06-14-2005, 12:00 PM

Online 3/6 game.

UTG (super loose passive who calls way too much) limps, MP1 (only a 6 or 7 hands with MP1, and he has raised 3 or 4 times preflop already....and either folded post flop or won without a showdown), Unknown MP2 cold calls, folded to me in the sb with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and I 3 bet. UTG, MP1 and MP2 all call.

Pot is 13 sb with 4 players. Flop is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
I lead, and all 3 call.

8.5 BB in the pot and the turn is 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Am I ever ahead here---if so how often? How often do you suspect I get raised on that board given the action and my (minimal) reads? Do I lead the turn or check call 1 bet?

crunchy1 · #2 06-14-2005, 12:11 PM

I'm not sure I like leading again here with little-to-zero outs again 3 virtually unkown players. If it's checked around to the last-to-act and he bets I may think about check raising.

Padawan Learner · #3 06-14-2005, 12:26 PM

Crunchy:

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I'm not sure I like leading again here with little-to-zero outs

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You don't think my ace and k outs, on that board, are going to be good the majority of the time?

Also, I take it that you think I am ahead here almost never?

shark6 · #4 06-14-2005, 01:09 PM

The flop missed you completely and the pot is big. Nobody is folding any remotely caught piece of the flop for 1 SB. I’d checkraise a LP bettor to get people out and improve your chances of winning, or just call a EP bettor.

By leading, you risk getting raised or trapped for many bets on the flop when you are behind and drawing to a 1-pair type hand that maybe is even reverse-dominated.

Sinnister · #5 06-14-2005, 01:13 PM

You want to lead with 2 ppl or less. with 3 or more check and take one off, fold the turn if UI. Super loose game ur semis lose value so maybe u wont even wanna lead out maybe just check and call fold the turn, but thats a little weak 4 my taste.

crunchy1 · #6 06-14-2005, 01:15 PM

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You don't think my ace and k outs, on that board, are going to be good the majority of the time?

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No, I think they will be good a decent percentage of the time. But that's not a reason to lead again on the turn - it's a reason to call one bet on the turn if you're getting good odds on your money.

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Also, I take it that you think I am ahead here almost never?

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Again, I think you're probably ahead here a fair amount of the time - but, again, that doesn't neccessarily mean that you should be betting. Personally against three opponents (w/a PFR and cold-caller) I'd expect to see a medium PP).

I feel like I really want to see the river but I want to do it for one bet. Leading the turn really opens yourself up to a couple bad situations that I wouldn't want to be in.

crunchy1 · #7 06-14-2005, 01:17 PM

FWIW - I'm leading the flop after 3-betting with no cap 100% of the time.

I think the posters advocating check/calling this rainbow, rag flop are playing super weak/tight poker.

Padawan Learner · #8 06-14-2005, 01:17 PM

shark:

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The flop missed you completely and the pot is big. Nobody is folding any remotely caught piece of the flop for 1 SB. I’d checkraise a LP bettor to get people out and improve your chances of winning, or just call a EP bettor

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I think I would be more apt to take your line on a more threatening/ugly board for my hand; but this board is pretty benign. I don't think it is a stretch at all to think I am best quite often on the flop and there is no guarantee the flop will get bet if I checked.

Sinnister · #9 06-14-2005, 01:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW - I'm leading the flop after 3-betting with no cap 100% of the time.

I think the posters advocating check/calling this rainbow, rag flop are playing super weak/tight poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

In a very loose game ur leading bet is getting raised with any pp. It should be an option in your thinking though i would lead most of the time as well u shouldnt be closed in your thinking

crunchy1 · #10 06-14-2005, 01:34 PM

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In a very loose game ur leading bet is getting raised with any pp. It should be an option in your thinking though i would lead most of the time as well u shouldnt be closed in your thinking

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I'm assuming you meant in an "aggressive" game my lead would get raised - "loose" has nothing to do with it (tight/loose are not equivilant to passive/aggressive)

I'm not closed minded at all. I'm commenting on the specific situation posted in this thread which describes the players as loose/passive except for MP1. Incidentally, MP1 is described as one who seems to raise a lot PF - but is also capable of folding hands he raised PF after the flop to aggression.