How's this turn bet?

Rake_in · #1 06-14-2005, 01:21 AM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 1 fold, MP2 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero caps, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (13.33 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (8.66 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets

I had just joined this table so I didn't have any reads. I weighed my options and decided to bet on this turn. What's the consensus?

Cancuk · #2 06-14-2005, 01:24 AM

Turn bets fine since you picked up the Flush draw. If you didnt pick up the draw i would be checking behind.

TheDelChop · #3 06-14-2005, 01:29 AM

If you were the only PF raiser then I would say go ahead and bet as you proably have alot of outs, and against 1 pair may have plenty of equity.

However, since the guy bet into the capper on the flop this really looks like a checkraise, and why pay more bets than you have to with A-high? You could be really far behind, and may have as few as 6 outs which would make this bet really really bad. If you raise for the free card, take it!

GuyOnTilt · #4 06-14-2005, 01:32 AM

To everybody,

How often do you estimate the flop gets 3-bet?

GoT

TheDelChop · #5 06-14-2005, 01:39 AM

If you give the 3-bettor a range of hands from A-Qs to A-Ks, A-Ko, and any pair better than 9, I think that the flop gets 3 bet with any of those overpairs, with 99, KK, AA waiting til the turn to checkraise most of the time.

So, Hero gets 3-bet with 10-10,JJ,QQ maybe sometimes AKs but that's probably unlikely OOP. This is an ok raise in my opinion as long as the hero has NO INTENTION of betting the turn and taking his free card.

cold_cash · #6 06-14-2005, 01:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
To everybody,

How often do you estimate the flop gets 3-bet?

GoT

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going guess about 1/2 the time.

Rake_in · #7 06-14-2005, 02:00 AM

Here's what I was thinking. I have 9 clean outs to the nuts. On top of that, I have 6 cards that'll give me top pair, but lets call that 3 outs because of the posibility of still being beat if I improve on the river, if I'm reverse dominated, etc. That's 12 outs, plus there's a very slight chance that I might fold a pair lower than Q on this turn. If I get called and see an unimproved river card it's likely to get checked to me, so I pay the same amount as if I had checked the turn and called a river bet.

On the other hand I risk getting checkraised (which would actually be good if I improve to the nuts on the river - but I can't see into the future to make that statement).

toss · #8 06-14-2005, 02:02 AM

NM I change my answer to at least half since MP2 raised PF.

Rake_in · #9 06-14-2005, 02:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To everybody,

How often do you estimate the flop gets 3-bet?

GoT

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going guess about 1/2 the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I could see calling the flop as a better option here, considering he doesn't seem to mind the fact that I capped preflop.

cold_cash · #10 06-14-2005, 02:06 AM

There are very few hands you're ahead of and I don't think he's folding often enough to make the bet good.

Sure, sometimes you'll get bailed out on the end, but that's not reason enough to bet.

I just don't think he folds JJ or TT often enough, and he's certainly not folding anything better than either of those two hands.