Overpair, huge pot, fold this river for one bet?

chaz64 · #1 06-13-2005, 01:00 PM

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP1 calls, 1 fold, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, CO caps, Hero calls, SB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (17 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, MP1 calls, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (13.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, SB calls, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Looks like no one has a set so they are drawing to something, yes?

River: (17.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, MP1 calls, CO folds, Hero ?

Final Pot: 19.50 BB

Annnd we have a straight. Or a flush? Is this worth a call? Comments appreciated.

Jaran · #2 06-13-2005, 01:09 PM

Do you have any reads on SB? His play is consistant with the low end of the str8 draw, but could also be something like QJ/KJ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. What are his calling standards for 2.5sb's?

-Jaran

imported_The Vibesman · #3 06-13-2005, 01:09 PM

It does appear you are beat, but I don't see how you can fold now closing the action, you only have to win this one in 20 times to be correct. Some folks on the low-stakes tables will make crazy bluffs at crazy times. Pray this is one of those times.

caggin · #4 06-13-2005, 01:23 PM

No way you can fold here for just one bet and closing the action. Pot's too big. Yeah you're probably beat by a straight or 2 pair, but I think you're good way more often than 1 in 20.

bozlax · #5 06-13-2005, 01:23 PM

Without looking at the hand history except to notice that you're closing the action on the river, the answer is "no."

Now to go back and look at the hand...

bozlax · #6 06-13-2005, 01:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Annnd we have a straight. Or a flush? Is this worth a call? Comments appreciated.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or two-pair. Or the same AT he started with. Or a bluff on a busted diamond draw. Call it down and find out.

BlackRain · #7 06-13-2005, 01:32 PM

I think you have to make this call for the reasons given above. Its just one bet. If it was two bets, then its a clear fold.

TomBrooks · #8 06-14-2005, 02:46 PM

I definately call getting 20:1. SB could be bluffing with the scare card, at least one in twenty times.

JerseyTom · #9 06-14-2005, 03:24 PM

If you fold this, a million kittens will die.

Seriously...

Tom

Fantam · #10 06-14-2005, 03:56 PM

Short answer is yes the river bet is worth a call.

The straight and flush draws can easily have missed and SB could be betting with a pair of J's,T's,9's or worse or even making a complete bluff.

You might still have the best hand, so its worth calling the 1 bet. You will only need to win 5% of the time for this call to be profitable.