River line?

theghost · #1 06-13-2005, 12:18 PM

villain hasn't done anything fantastically smart or stupid yet to grab my attention while 4-tabling:

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 5 folds.

Flop: (7.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, MP2 folds, Hero calls.

River: (8.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, Hero ...

Jaran · #2 06-13-2005, 12:26 PM

Hmmmmmmm. I think you'll see some sort of T here (AT,KT) enough times to make a 3bet profitable, but I think it's pretty close. Gonna think on it a bit, maybe even try some math [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

-Jaran

silkyslim · #3 06-13-2005, 12:32 PM

I would 3-bet. There is no flush. I put villian on a smaller straight or 3 tens. The only thing you need to worry about is a full boat which is unlikely.

karitek · #4 06-13-2005, 12:38 PM

Reads? Even PT stats help. We need to know how loose is cold-calling standards are.

I think I'd 3-bet. The only hands you lose to are 88-TT, and I think he'd probably wait til the turn to raise those.
He's much more likely to have KTs, AT, or QJs.

theghost · #5 06-13-2005, 12:41 PM

How do you get cold calling stats from PT?

Jaran · #6 06-13-2005, 12:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The only hands you lose to are 88-TT, and I think he'd probably wait til the turn to raise those.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummm, what about 8T/9T/JT?

-Jaran

imported_The Vibesman · #7 06-13-2005, 12:42 PM

Rough one. Initially I wanted to raise, thinking you could see A-10 and 6-7 or 7-8 a good amount of the time here. But in this particular hand I think the connectedness of the board makes a full house more likely, what with the people playing the JT's and the 9-T's and the hands of this nature. Given that I may just call.

edit: certainly wouldn't fold. I don't even really consider that an option here.

Fantam · #8 06-13-2005, 12:44 PM

I think that you should have called this river raise.

I think the most likely hands that MP1 might have called your PF raise with, that make sense with the rest of his play during the hand are medium pocket pairs like 88 or 99, or perhaps something like JTs.

MP1 must have been aware of the straight possibility from the flop, but he has bet or raised whenever possible on every street since.

I strongly suspect that MP1 has a full-house here and so I would call the river instead of 3-betting your straight. I certainly wouldnt fold to his river raise though, because I think that the pot has become too big to risk losing to a bluff or weaker hand, such as trip T's.

karitek · #9 06-13-2005, 12:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The only hands you lose to are 88-TT, and I think he'd probably wait til the turn to raise those.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummm, what about 8T/9T/JT?

-Jaran

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why I said we needed to know his stats. Against an unknown, I don't think I'd put him on those hands (he cold-called preflop).

atnels · #10 06-13-2005, 12:46 PM

My guts says just call this. I think it has to be pretty close if villain is reasonable. Presumably, your bet out on the river and the 4-to-a-straight board says you have a chunk of it. His raise says he doesn't care, or doesn't believe you.

He just called your preflop raise, so if he's loose 88 & 99 are possible along with broadways. If he's tight, JJ or TT are possible. Along those lines, if he's tight enough not to reraise w/AA,KK,or QQ I'm guessing he's not raising the coordinated flop.

You're losing to:
88 (3 ways)
99 (3w)
T8 (6w)
T9 (6w)
JT (6w)
JJ (3w)
TT (1w)

Total = 25

Somewhat logical hands you beat, given action
AT (8w)
KT (8w)
QT (8w)
J7 (12w) (pretty doubtful given preflop CC, river raise)
67 (16w) (doubtful given preflop CC, river raise)

Total = 52, discounted to say 32

You split with KQ (9 ways) but that's pretty unlikely given the flop raise unless villain is super-aggressive.

This isn't meant as anything other than a rough estimate of the general range of hands, but I think it's close without a read. All the possibilities of hands you beat almost have to slow down given the river card, and it's heads-up. If there was a third L/P tagging along, I'd reraise easily. But, I think HU calling is okay. Nice hand.