4-flush hits the turn

JrJordan · #1 06-13-2005, 04:25 AM

Villain is loose, slightly aggro but not really out of control. I've seen him raise an OESD before with overcards, so he could certainly be doing so with a high club here. Worth a call down here?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, CO calls, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero checks.

Flop: (3.40 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Button 3-bets, Hero caps, CO calls, Button calls.

Turn: (7.70 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Button folds, Hero calls.

River: (9.70 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11.70 BB

BlindingLaser · #2 06-13-2005, 04:31 AM

I would consider bet/fold the river, since he probably won't raise without having you beat, and might check behind with a set or two pair that had a redraw on the turn and didn't get there.

imported_piki · #3 06-13-2005, 07:20 AM

This doesn't make sense to me, unless you think he is aggro enough to bet twice w/o a club and fold if you bet.

Bet the turn. He'll probably let you know if he beats you right there and and he might cry&call with hands you beat (set/2pair/str8...).

-pix

spydog · #4 06-13-2005, 10:00 AM

I think you can bet-fold this turn. While you flopped a monster, this turn card made your hand mediocre. I doubt if anyone raises this turn with something that you beat.

Were you trying to save yourself bets by checking and folding if it was 2 bets back to you? If so, I guess that's a plan.

stripsqueez · #5 06-13-2005, 10:38 AM

if i bet the turn i worry that the person raising likes a good scare card - there is always something to worry about so i bet the turn a lot anyway

if your not calling the river then you should probably fold the turn

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

ALL1N · #6 06-13-2005, 11:07 AM

Please just bet the turn [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

JrJordan · #7 06-13-2005, 12:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Were you trying to save yourself bets by checking and folding if it was 2 bets back to you? If so, I guess that's a plan.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo. I was hoping someone would bring up this idea. Button sure looks like he could have a high club with his raise as well, so I think it's a safe fold if its two back to me on the turn. Once CO bets though and button folds (or if we assume button just calls), I think it might be good for me to donk bet the river and fold to a raise.

afk · #8 06-13-2005, 12:15 PM

I would be more apt to bet and fold to a turn raise. If villain isn't really out of control then I think this is a safe line.

afk · #9 06-13-2005, 12:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if i bet the turn i worry that the person raising likes a good scare card - there is always something to worry about so i bet the turn a lot anyway

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain just calls your turn bet and the other guy folds, do you bet-fold the river?

imported_piki · #10 06-13-2005, 01:57 PM

Interesting, I totally overlooked the button. I suck. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Actually, I can't see your hand being good here anymore unless you're against something like 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I think I have to start a smooth-check/folding movement. Who's with me? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Seriously, now. This is tough and it depends a lot on the CO and whoever of those two that is holding a high [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Why?

Consider what has to be true in order to get action back to you with 2 cold. CO must bet out with a weaker hand, which might beat you (K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) or not (meaning he's pretty silly or looking to fold to a raise). Button also has to be silly enough to raise his nutty A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

If he's not that silly (or disrespectful, which is not that unreasonable), he'd just call. Why scare you both? The second case for your 2 cold is, if button plans to semibluff with a set here.

Considering all this, you shouldn't count on the case where you can safely fold to two cold. More likely scenarios are:

a) CO bets out, Button folds, you lose 2 bets because you take check-call/check-call or check-call/bet-fold. Ok, you might win. Not very often. I'll analyse the check-call/check-fold later, I think it might have some merit.

b) CO bets out, Button calls, and you go [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]. Hopefully you fold, because the river will be another [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img], unless it gets checked through.

c) CO checks too, Button now bets, you call ([img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]) (and CO raises [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] You curse the stupidity of PP players and fold). Similar to the a) case, but a bit worse, because you're not closing the action.

d) It gets checked through. Your hand is probably good (but board pairs on the river and you lose to a boat and you get scolded on 2+2 for giving a free card [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]), and you missed some value bets.

So, if you check, we have a very rare case where you might get away for 0 bets (if you don't take advice and make a smooth fold on the turn). You are putting in 2 bets in every other case because you never find out where you stand. If you bet out, you are either losing 1 or 2, depending on the players. And if you are actually ahead, you're missing on value by checking. Knowing all that, betting out seems better than check/calling+whatever on the river.

How about check/call, check/fold line? Let's first consider the odds, and let's say there is one bettor on the turn and the other one folds.
On the turn, you are getting 8.7:1 and about 4.9:1 (9.7:2) if the opponent bets again to see the showdown. Calling the turn bet with intention of check/folding means that you're getting 8.7:1 odds on your opponent checking the river. It also means that you think you're not good in 4.9:1, because that are your pot odds from turn to showdown if the opponent bets the river (or you do the betting for him).

To sum it up:

a) check/call and bet line, you're getting ~5:1 on your hand being good. You are an optimist.

b) check/call and check/fold line. See above. I am not sure about it, the 8.7:1 odds on opponent checking aren't that bad, but it's not very pretty either.

c) Bet out. Tooough. Again, it depends on the opponent with that A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. He shouldn't raise. Trap you for another bet on the river, he should. That sucks, but if you're not folding, it's unavoidable. I wouldn't dare to suggest betting the turn and check/folding the river if called. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] If you get raised, ypee, you're getting out cheaply.

d) You don't like the 8.7:1 on the river getting checked through. And you definitely don't dare to think your hand is good for 5:1 odds. You fold.

Conclusion? Option c) or option d) seem viable. Since we don't like missing on value, c) is probably the 2+2 choice (river play is tough and you're probably losing money here no matter what you do). Considering an average player's abilities to extract value, it might even be the best, because he'll smartly raise his A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. However, if the players are tough.... I'm all in for option d).

So, where did I screw up?

-pix