Avoiding blindness.

MastiffPaul · #1 06-13-2005, 12:42 AM

EDIT: Sorry, meant to mention it originally: This is 20+2.

I must admit, I've read several posts about pushing any two to avoid being blinded, and I still don't understand the concept. I've been pushing any two in several late-game situations, and more often than not I've been called by any-ace hands or low pairs that ruin me. Here's an example:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (4 handed) converter

Hero (t580)
SB (t750)
BB (t3170)
UTG (t3500)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to t580 (All-In), SB raises to t750 (All-In), 1 fold.

Should I have waited for a better hand to push? If I wait too much longer, I lose FE, correct? But it seems that if the SB or BB are even slightly inclined to call, pushing this hand is -EV. Here's another:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (6 handed) converter

Hero (t790)
BB (t1135)
UTG (t1345)
MP (t715)
CO (t1120)
Button (t2895)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
4 folds, BB calls t590.

Of course, I'm not on the bubble here, so other players have less reason to be tight. Yes? But BB is short stacked as well, and shouldn't be inclined to make loose calls with hands like "any ace."

I provide these two hands, but I don't think they're exemplary of when and where I'm unsure about pushing. (I'm unsure about it a LOT. Sometimes my FE wins me the blinds, sometimes loose BB calls double me up, sometimes they ruin me. I'm not on tilt about it, but I am very confused.) I'm looking for advice on these hands, or general advice about +EV pushing when short stacked. Thanks in advance.

Isura · #2 06-13-2005, 12:54 AM

Hand 1, I think SB and BB's calling standards are more important than your cards (ie KT isn't much better than T4 here when you get called.) I fold this in the loose 6s and 11s I play, what limit is this?

Hand 2, I think a push is fine here (with any 2). I haven't run this one in the SNGPT, but intuitely I can guess push is +EV here.

zac777 · #3 06-13-2005, 12:55 AM

The second push is far better than the first. In the first situation your best pushing spot is when you're on the small blind, since you'll be against the only stack you threaten. Pushing with two people behind you is much riskier. It's a borderline decision. Probably only profitable if the BB's calling range is very tight.

2nd situation is an auto-push. You can hurt him badly, so he probably won't call with more than 50% of his hands. Even if he's calling any ace, king, or queen, this is a +EV move.

Scuba Chuck · #4 06-13-2005, 12:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
SNGPT

[/ QUOTE ] ?????

Isura · #5 06-13-2005, 12:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
SNGPT

[/ QUOTE ] ?????

[/ QUOTE ]

Eastbay's SNG poker tools program.

Jay36489 · #6 06-13-2005, 12:58 AM

But Ax and low pps are good hands 4 handed. The reasoning is that usually they wont have them. Sometimes you will get caught, but thats poker. The first hand the BB is a big stack that can afford your push, so that is dangerous. Looks like you got unlucky with the SB there though. In hand two if BB called with any ace that was a loose call.

Just curious... You say you are confused about when to push. Are you taking a long time to decide every time you try and steal? I've caught people who were taking a long time to decide, then pushing in steal situations. I just knew they were stealing but weren't confident in it. One guy was doing it every time, and finally I called him w/ K2o. His J2o didnt hold up and I mentioned something like "any two, eh?" He didn't try it again.

Edit: Oh, and what level are you playing at? This doesnt work in the 11s as well becuase people don't know when to fold.

Scuba Chuck · #7 06-13-2005, 01:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
SNGPT

[/ QUOTE ] ?????

[/ QUOTE ]

Eastbay's SNG poker tools program.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's already been coined the "SGA" ~SitNGo Analyzer. (credit:Ilya).

Not that it matters....

Scuba

Isura · #8 06-13-2005, 01:05 AM

My bad. I've seen SNGPT used for it in old posts. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

MastiffPaul · #9 06-13-2005, 01:07 AM

I'm playing in the 22s.

DasLeben · #10 06-13-2005, 01:15 AM

Both of these pushes are correct. The second being correct more of the time than the first.

Note that I didn't say that either push was correct all of the time. The key when attempting steals doesn't have much to do with your cards at all (though there is some analysis in the math involved). The key is your opponent's calling range. Granted, this is overly simplified, but it gets the point across.

To put it in simple terms, I'll give an example. Suppose your opponent is reasonably tight and will only call an all in if he holds 66+,ATs+,AJo+. By probability alone, we know that your opponent will only have one of these hands 6.1% of the time. 93.9% of the time you push into this opponent, you pick up his blinds.

You can already tell that this is a great move for you, as picking up an extra 300+ chips does wonders for your stack and increases your equity in the tournament prizepool.

So why is it possible for pushing T4o to be +EV here? This is simply because it doesn't matter what the cards are in your hand. You could be pushing AA, or you could be pushing 32o...the results 93.9% of the time are the same. Your opponent will fold and concede his blind.

Now, certainly pushing AA is slightly more +EV than pushing 32o, simply because the 6.1% of the time you are called, you'll win with AA more than you'll win with 32o. But, the difference in EV is generally not incredibly great, because as I said, you're picking up the blinds such a large amount of the time.

Again, this is overly simplified and the math gurus on this board will probably hate me forever, but I think this gives you a good basic background on the concept.