AK River Action

theBruiser500 · #1 06-11-2005, 06:14 PM

No read, should I bet or check, why?

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises, CO calls, 2 folds, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, CO calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, CO folds, BB calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (9.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero...

freehat · #2 06-11-2005, 07:31 PM

Well lets give him a 3-betting range pre-flop AA-77, AK-ATs AK-AJo, KQs.

I think its unlikely he has AA, KK, QQ, KQs, AQs, AQo, ATs (beside hearts), and AJo given the flop and turn action.

So with JJ-77 he's probably checking and calling and that is 6*5= 30 combinations.

So that leaves 12 combines of AK left, along with AT hearts and AJ hearts for 44 (30+12+2) total river combos.

You are getting 9.25:1 on any bet, so if he check-calls the pairs you lose 1BB*30/44= -.68BB. If he always folds the others you win 9.25BB*(14/44 )= 2.94BB.

This makes for a net profit of 2.94BB-.68BB = 2.26BB.

Lets say he call with pair and folds AK half the time and fold AT and AJ all the time.

Pairs = -.68BB

AK chop = (11.25BB/2)*(6/44)= .77BB

AK, AJ, AT fold = 9.25BB*(8/44)= 1.68BB

Net profit = 1.68BB+ .77BB- .68BB = 1.77BB.

Don't feel like doing the algebra but it looks like if he folds AK around 20-25% under these assumptions, a bet will be profitable.

TheDelChop · #3 06-11-2005, 07:31 PM

Alright don't really post in Mid-High but this hand really intrests me so I'll give it a shot.

Since you have no reads we are going to assume that the BB isn't a donkey, but since we saw the CO twice cold call and then fold for a bet lets assume he's an idiot and ignore him.

The BB may or may not know the CO is a donkey. So when he 3-bets your MP3 raise and subsequent cold-call OOP we have to assume he has some strength, I don't think you really look like a steal but I could be wrong and if I am that changes my analysis.

Getting back to the hand. Once he 3-bets, he knows he's announcing that he is strong. I would say that he does this with AJs-AQs, 1010-AA.

He also knows that you know this and probably only cap with 5 maybe 6 hands. QQ-AA, AKo AKs, maybe AQs.

If he had c/c, c/c, bet I think you could fold and be correct. However, when he doesn't come alive on the turn or bet the river you can eliminate AA, KK, QQ, AQs and AJs unless its AhJh.

This leaves only 10-10, JJ, and AK. He probably figures that since you capped and your hand range is QQ-AA, AK, and AQs he can only beat AK so he is WA/WB and is going to call down.

Since you can only chop with AK and he most likely will call with it I would check and not be shocked when he turns over most likey JJ.

TheDelChop · #4 06-11-2005, 07:35 PM

After the CO cold calls I think you can further limit the 3-betting hands of the BB to disclude 77-99, ATs, AJo, and KQs.

theBruiser500 · #5 06-11-2005, 07:55 PM

Glad to see one of my posts was finally able to elicit response [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

etizzle · #6 06-11-2005, 08:07 PM

Bet, you would have heard from a pair by now.

legend42 · #7 06-11-2005, 08:15 PM

The only reason I see for betting here is to push him an off an AK chop. But from the action, it feels to me like a mid pocket pair that's calling down. I cross my fingers and check.

goofball · #8 06-11-2005, 08:31 PM

Don't forget he loses value by checking from A and K high's that call.

bobhalford · #9 06-11-2005, 10:16 PM

I check cause I think he's calling you most of the time with a better hand than yours. There's also the other times where he's hiding a monster and will raise the river.

AceHigh · #10 06-11-2005, 11:21 PM

Your AK is likely toast, so check...unlikely you can fold a better hand or get a call from worse hand.