$10-$20 hand from the Borgata

[Mike Gallo]

I played this hand this afternoon at a not so good $10-$20 game at the Taj Mahal. Poster Poker327 sat two seats to my left and we discussed this hand over lunch. I found it semi interesting so I told him I would post it.

A player who would play with any two cards limps from ep. This player will limp with any two cards and plays fairly straight forward post flop. His bets and raises on the later streets means he has a hand. Folded to a player in the middle who raised. This player plays pretty passive post flop. He fails to bet and raise for value. I picked up AK in the small blind and called. We can debate not reraising, however for this hand I decided to call with the intentions of check raising the flop if I hit an Ace or a King.

Flop K J 4 rainbow

I check any two checked original raiser bet, I raised both called.

Turn 8 K J 4

I bet any two raised original raiser called, what do I do?

Please critique all three streets.

[wildwood]

Here are my thoughts:
Flop: anytwo called two cold and since he plays straight forward post-flop, he's got a piece of it. The original raiser is passive post-flop so he's likely betting a king.
Turn: anytwo's raise seems to indicate the 8 helped; two pair maybe: J8 I think since he checked the flop, the original raiser's call probably means the 8 didn't help him.
Based on my thoughts, we need a A, K, or 4 to win; I don't think anytwo folds two pair to a raise. Still 3betting may fold out the original raiser and increase our winning chances enough to justify the bet, but we are still likely behind to anytwo.
River: UI, I check behind, or call one bet, or fold to 2 bets. If I improve (A,K, or 4), I would reraise. fwiw

[MHarris]

Preflop and flop are fine. I take it you had this plan for a reason, most likely that it was your best chance to get this pot HU with the PFR.

The turn....given any2's straightforward play, this 8 helped him somehow, be it 88(3 combos), K8(6), J8(9), or 84(9). You're getting 9.5:1 and you have 6.7 weighted outs, more than enough to continue.

[sweetjazz]

I think not raising preflop is bad, but I will move on.

Flop is good. Turn looks good; when it's one bet back to you, you should call. You probably have hidden outs.

The river seems close between check/calling and check/folding UI. If your read is really good that the turn raise is two pair or better, then folding seems right. I generally lean to calling here for one more bet unless I've got a really good read.

If the board pairs, I'd check/call. If you spike an A or hit trip Ks, check-raising is probably best, especially if you believe your opponent is passive enough to not 3-bet with a set / full house (his most likely one being 8s).

[Brunger]

3-bet pre-flop hand is just to good and don't want to let the bb in that cheaply. Call turn he could easily have 2 shitty pair and we potentially have a decent amount of outs. If your read is good you can fold the river unimproved this is a call most of the time.

[MisterKing]

[ QUOTE ]
I played this hand this afternoon at a not so good $10-$20 game at the Taj Mahal. Poster Poker327 sat two seats to my left and we discussed this hand over lunch. I found it semi interesting so I told him I would post it.

A player who would play with any two cards limps from ep. This player will limp with any two cards and plays fairly straight forward post flop. His bets and raises on the later streets means he has a hand. Folded to a player in the middle who raised. This player plays pretty passive post flop. He fails to bet and raise for value. I picked up AK in the small blind and called. We can debate not reraising, however for this hand I decided to call with the intentions of check raising the flop if I hit an Ace or a King.

Flop K J 4 rainbow

I check any two checked original raiser bet, I raised both called.

Turn 8 K J 4

I bet any two raised original raiser called, what do I do?

Please critique all three streets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your play through the turn seems ok to me, assuming you want us to forgo a discussion on the merits of not 3-betting preflop to punish "any two man." I guess I think the flat call is ok but not great given the fact that MP did raise, and he's known to be passive... You'd learn a lot more if you 3-bet and he capped.

Flop seems straightforward. Your C/R really smacks "any two man" since he will often have to call two without proper odds or fold here getting only 5:1. The turn raise from "any two man" sure does look like two pair, given your read, in which case you're live with a number of outs on the river.

Of course, it matters which two pair, and that's not an easy thing to nail down. The fact that he checked the flop, plus your read that he is straightforward postflop means he probably did not flop two pair, so you can safely say the 8 helped him. I 'spose there will be times where he does have KJ or K4 as well... Leaving those aside for the moment, he could be holding 88, of course, in which case you're entering a world of pain, as Walter says in "The Big Lebowski." 88 is much less likely (as a matter of mathematical possibilities) then J8, 84, and to an extent K8 (though the fact you have a king means there are only four ways to make K8 here).

You're 13.6% vs the K8, 18% vs the J8 and 84, and dead vs the set of 8's. That's pretty grim. 8 outs vs the J8 and 48, 6 outs vs K8, 0 outs vs 888... 9(8)+9(8)+4(6)+3(0)= 168/25 = 6.7 weighted outs. You're getting 11.5:1 (no rake since 10 at Borg is timed). Heads up its a mandatory call, but the MP raiser's turn call certainly complicates things! You could easily be drawing at half the pot, or at least have this guy holding one or two of your potential outs. What non-king hands is he calling two bets with on the turn?

I think the simplest play is to call, closing the action, and then check-folding the river unimproved. Even when you do improve, you may need to proceed cautiously, forgoing a value bet and letting "any two" bet for you so you can call closing the action. I don't know if this line is -EV in the long run, since you really do have to worry about splitting the pot with the orig raiser a lot of the time you do "win." Also, the orig raiser is going to have a set of kings or jacks some of the time, and pocket aces some of the time too, complicating your turn play quite a bit. This is a hairy situation!

My point is, you have a solid holding, and an opportunity to see a showdown for a large pot for no more than 2BB. You might see it for 1BB every now and then.

[wildwood]

I have two questions: Would anytwo likely have called two cold on the flop with just a pair of fours? And would anytwo likely have checked behind on the turn with a set of eights? fwiw
edit: I don't know if anytwo would have bet into the original raiser with top pair or not. Which means he could have K8.

[Mike Gallo]

You're getting 9.5:1 and you have 6.7 weighted outs, more than enough to continue.

What about the passive player. What range of hands can he have?

[Mike Gallo]

I think not raising preflop is bad, but I will move on.

Against this lineup I prefered calling as opposed to reraising.

What hand do you put the caller in the middle to have?

[Mike Gallo]

I folded. I think a lot of you guys need to include the other player into the hand. I posted that he failed to raise or bet for value. I found myself frequently checking after him on the river because he never value bet, however he would call with a good/marginal hand.

River was a blank.

Any two bet other guy called.

K8 vs JJ. The other guy flopped a set and never put in a raise. I was drawing dead on the turn.

Eric (Poker327)and I discussed this over lunch and he said I had an easy fold. I told him if I posted the hand almost every poster would advocate calling, and not even consider folding.

I fully expected to see set over set.