Horse Racing - Belmont Stakes

[llabb]

I'm no good at the horses, myself, but I found a good write-up on a pay play that I'll share with the board. Anyone else got any good Belmont picks?

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Big Al McMordie $50 pick

REASON FOR PLAY: At 6:35 pm, on Saturday, our Guaranteed selection is on the #10 horse, Indy Storm. Let me start out by saying that I am a HUGE Afleet Alex fan. This horse has done nothing wrong and has shown great courage and heart, as has his jockey, Jeremy Rose throughout the Triple Crown campaign. First, there's the story of the little girl named Alex with cancer and the lemonade stands that are popping up all over in the name of Alex (the girl and the horse) to raise money for cancer research. Then there is the gallant effort in the Derby. And then of course there is the heroic and breathtaking (I've run out of words to describe it) effort in the Preakness that will go down as one of the greatest rides not just in Triple Crown history, but in all of racing. So this is why it's so difficult for me to say this...A LONG SHOT will win the Belmont! Why? Well, this is a race for FRESH horses and dead closers. And it is also a race for a jockey named Edgar Prado. Prado first pulled off a huge upset three years ago with 70-1 shot Sarava, and then again last year with 36-1 shot Birdstone. Sure, two years ago Empire Maker raced near the front the whole way and pulled off down the stretch in the slop to win easily. But the fractions up front were soft in that race; there was no speed to challenge him; and any closers who may have been there that day had no chance. Saturday we have an eleven horse field (barring any scratches), tons of early speed with the likes of Pinpoint, AP Arrow, and Reverberate, and of course we have Nick Zito (who has three horses in the race) and the giant killer, Edgar Prado. Like Sarava three years ago, Zito's Indy Storm last raced in an allowance race on Preakness day to prepare for this one. And like Sarava (who was trained by Kenny McPeek, not Zito) Indy Storm was impressive, winning by two widening lengths in very good time under that day's jockey, Gary Stevens. Indy Storm's daddy, AP Indy, won this race in 1992 and Indy Storm is impeccably bred for this distance. You probably won't get 70-1 on Indy Storm, but you will get at least his morning line of 20-1. Use him across the board and in an exacta box with Afleet Alex and Giacomo. Throw another Zito horse, Andromeda's Hero, into your exotics as well and sit back and enjoy another huge performance on Belmont Day by the kings of New York, Zito and Prado. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my big NBA Winners, as well as Baseball plays today.

[chiachu]

i dunno anything about horses either... but i got my money on afleet alex to win (took a fixed 1:1 on him). Crappy no value bet, yea i know, but im too much of a fan now [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I don't know what the morning lines are, so I'm not sure how much of a price this is, but I like Chekhov as a possible longshot. I think Afleet Alex is going to win the race, so I'm going to play exactas of AA over Chekhov straight and then play a few triples keying AA over Chekhov and a couple of others.

[TacoVendor]

Olympic has him at 70-2

[llabb]

Here are the morning lines, followed by Pinnacle's lines (since the book is willing to take this line, it should approximate their estimate of how the money will end up at the bell):


Post - Horse - Morning Line - Pinnacle Line
1 Nolan's Cat 50-1 100-1
2 Pinpoint 20-1 24-1
3 A.P. Arrow 20-1 40-1
4 Southern Africa 12-1 12-1
5 Giacomo 4-1 4-1
6 Watchmon 50-1 100-1
7 Andromeda's Hero 15-1 16-1
8 Reverberate 6-1 7-1
9 Afleet Alex 6-5 1-1
10 Indy Storm 20-1 25-1
11 Chekhov 12-1 18-1

(Anyone know how to format this stuff to read better?)

[llabb]

Horses are a leak for me, I'm just having fun. Based on picks I've seen, it seems that anyone who knows anything likes Alex to win. Horrible low odds, but I'll start with a main base play of Alex to win, plus the over 4.5 lengths and over 7.5 lengths (on Pinnacle), just to add some price to the play.

Next I picked some longshot horses to throw in and have fun with. So here are a bunch of tiny plays I'm taking:

Indy Storm, Chekhov, and Pinpoint to win, place, and show.

2-way exactas of Alex and Indy, Alex and Chekhov, and Alex and Pinpoint.

Trifectas involving all 4, but Alex only in positions 1 & 2.

Have fun at the races tomorrow, guys!