30/60 Turn Semi-Bluff

Seether · #1 06-10-2005, 07:12 AM

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $30.
UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, MP1 caps, 4 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (18 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks.

Turn: (9 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises...........

Thoughts?

pipes · #2 06-10-2005, 01:46 PM

I think its a good play here. Not sure if you heard of it, but there is a new book out by King Yao, Weighing the Odds in Hold'em. He goes through the mathematics of plays like this and calculates the breakeven folding %s based on how many estimated outs that you have that make raising more +EV than calling. Its an interesting chapter.

With so many potential outs here, the breakeven % may be as low as 10%. (Don't have the book handy...)

SoBeDude · #3 06-10-2005, 02:11 PM

Tell us about MP1.

Whats his play like?

-Scott

mc1023 · #4 06-10-2005, 02:45 PM

With two players still to act behind you, let's not forget that preflop capper is in MP1 and SB called capped cold.

If they both folded and you missed river, are you planning to take another shot at the river.

And if one of the two behind you called you and you missed river, your raise is definently not for value.

I can't see you being ahead here or getting a fold from UTG on the river on a blank card.

I would just call since you have a lot of outs and the pot is too big to push anyone that's betting into it out.

DpR · #5 06-10-2005, 03:34 PM

Doubt you have a chance of winning this w/o showdown and I also don't think you are cleaning up any outs. However, you have a ton of outs so its certaily not bad.

Seether · #6 06-10-2005, 04:21 PM

UTG and MP1 were among the softer spots on the table. MP1 was a little too loose and aggressive preflop from what I had noticed.

Seether · #7 06-10-2005, 04:32 PM

There isnt anyone else behind me other than MP1, if i missed the river I would check if there are multiple callers and consider betting if just UTG calls. He was one of the softer spots on the table. Ill let the discussion go a little more and then post the results.

SoBeDude · #8 06-10-2005, 06:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
UTG and MP1 were among the softer spots on the table. MP1 was a little too loose and aggressive preflop from what I had noticed.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands would MP1 cap then check the flop on? is he one of those that will cap with a small pair then check behind if he misses? If so, I like the raise. It looks like you tried for a check-raise on the flop and whiffed when MP1 checked behind.

If he's the type that has fallen in love with the 'bet' button, then his check is a monster and your raise means you're spending at least 3 bets to draw, and you have a lot fewer outs.

-Scott

Seether · #9 06-10-2005, 08:05 PM

Yes that was the sort of player he was, he would be very aggressive preflop and give up easily postflop. Anyways I raised and everyone folded.

SoBeDude · #10 06-10-2005, 09:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yes that was the sort of player he was, he would be very aggressive preflop and give up easily postflop. Anyways I raised and everyone folded.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I really like the raise now that I know everyone is going to fold to it! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

But seriously if you think he's that type (the first type I mentioned) then I like the raise.

-Scott