Detroit vs. San Antonio thoughts and game 2

[miami32]

First I would like to thank everyone who posted on the last thread. I think everyone who paid attention should have generated a lot of profit just off of llab and scalf's posts. As for this thread I would like to hear everyones thoughts on the game and the thoughts on the line for the next game. Once again please put thought into each response and hopefully we can all show a profit for the next game like most of us did for the last one. Also on a side note if you are betting the game please include where you think you are getting the best line to help some of out other less experienced betters.

GL everybody!

[llabb]

It's early, but the lines are dropping already guys, so you might want to take your plays soon. We don't want a repeat of the D-Wade screw-over.

Playing the Under again. Last night's Uglyball was the rule, not the exception. Over the last 2 years, Det-SA totals have been 153, 157, 162, and 159, plus a meaningless high-scoring game that doesn't count due to almost no Duncan or Manu.

Line opened this morning at 172, has dropped in many places to 171.5, and is already down to 171 on Pinnacle. You can still get it at 172 at WSEX and Intertops, so if you like the play, take it quickly.

I will probably be playing the Under the entire series. This is the one game that I fear has the best chance of going over, but with a series average under 158, I can't ignore a 14 point differential.

---------------------------------------------------

For the side, I think it's too tough to call this time.

Detroit fell completely apart in the 4th after Ben Wallace lost it when they called a blocking foul on him instead of a charge on Ginobili. That's still one of the plays they're talking about, a whole article on ESPN about it. That won't happen again, as Larry should be hammering into his team to keep discipline and composure even if there are bad calls.

Rasheed is the key for Det. He won't score a miserable 6 pts again. He was the catalyst for the huge Det lead in the early 1st Q. He shot 3-for 3, had 4 rebs, a steal, and 3 blks! LB pulled him for rest, and when he came back in the game, they didn't go back to him, and the team suffered for it. LB should be smart enough not to let that happen in Game 2. Courtside reporters in Game 1 already said during the game that LB was telling the team to start giving it to the big guys first. Meaning Rasheed will get tons of plays in Game 2. He should be at least 15+ pts (I'm thinking in the 20's), and will make Duncan work on defense, which slightly tires out his offense as well.

Det is almost in a must-win for this game. If they lose, it's over. Home team has too big an advantage in the finals due to 2-3-2 format. Teams almost never win all 3 at home (didn't check, it's possible no team ever has). So if Det loses this one, it's virtually guaranteed that they'll be down 3-1 or 3-2, and SA will probably close it out in 6.

Knowing this, if they play smart, go to Rasheed often, and also take advantage of their mismatches with Billups and Prince having size advantages offensively, Det has a good chance in Game 2.

Having said all that, SA is the favorite, still at home, and I picked them to win the series for a reason. They're just the most complete team and are better than the more one-dimensional Pistons team. They do not lose focus, and will come to Game 2 in even better shape than Game 1, with plenty of rest stored up, but the rust gone. See the other Det-SA thread for all my reasons why SA is better.

So at -6, I can't call it. My gut says SA still wins, but it's much closer than Game 1, and there's an outside chance Det takes the game, if they can figure out Ginobili.

Thus, this leads me to the teaser plays I have been employing so often, with mixed results. Teasers suck in terms of EV and the bad odds you get, to pay for the pts. But I've used them a lot in the playoffs since I am comfortable with the totals, but want some help with the sides.

So I'm playing Det +10.5 plus the Under 178. This is an even money wager on Pinnacle at the 4.5/6.5 teaser line. best wishes to all.

[llabb]

By the way, the series play is still available, if you missed out on it. Pinnacle has reposted new lines, and they still have decent value, since SA was expected to win Game 1 anyway, and that does not change the # of games prices drastically.

See the other SA-Det thread for the original wager, but in a nutshell, you can still get SA in 6 or 7 for a net line of -104. For the weaker of heart, SA in 5 or Det in 7 can be hedged now. I didn't run the exact numbers, since I already took the play, but I think it drops the net line to somewhere around -200.

Personally, I think that's a little pricey for only hedge value, so if I were doing it now, I'd just take the SA 6 and 7, and then if I wanted to play it safe, I'd hedge for SA in 5 if they get to 3-1, or hedge for 7 games when either team is 3-2. Even in those cases, I myself would be comfortable in letting things play out, since I'm playing with series playoff winnings anwyway. For those nervous about those scenarios, the "safest" outcome for this play would be if the teams are tied at 2-2, however they get there. In that case, SA would have a good chance of stealing Game 5 and closing out in 6, or if Det took Game 5, then closing out at home in 7.

[llabb]

Decided to play another series prop.

Duncan is -155 to win Finals MVP on Pinnacle. In my opinion, that line should be closer to the SA series line of -380. Part of the reason for the disconnect is that people are in love with Ginobili after his halftime feature and amazing 4th quarter last night. So they're betting him heavily (line moved from around +600 down to +185 on him).

I think Manu is fantastic as well, but winning the MVP over Duncan? That's a bit too much. Even during the Lakers' time at the top, as incredible as Kobe is, Shaq always got the MVP vote. Every single time. Same for the Spurs, if they win, Duncan is the MVP. Has to be. Det will probably put more focus on stopping Ginobili anyway, just like they did with Kobe, while letting Shaq get his.

Anyway, the play is on Duncan for MVP. For myself, since I already have enough on the Spurs to win the series, I've hedged this play due to the fantastic odds I can get on the Pistons players. If the Pistons do somehow win, their most likely hero is Billups. He was the only one who had a good Game one, and he's gonna beat Parker up all series long. When Det won last year, who was their MVP? Chauncey. At +1042, this is a good hedge.

For Detroit to win, though, someone else will have to play fantastic, and that's Rasheed, as earlier discussed. Chauncey, other teammates, and the media say that Rasheed's their best player, so he has a chance at MVP as well. At +3000, might as well take him too.

Playing Duncan and hedging on Billups and Rasheed gives a net line of -223. Just because the Det players are so dang cheap, I've played all 3 to win equally. This gives a net line of -268. Yes, that's an expensive play, but it seems that the only way to lose on it is if Manu not just outplays, but vastly outplays Duncan, and I just don't see that happening.

So the play is on Duncan at -155, or if you already have too much on SA, then take all 3 players at -268.

Also, if anyone wants to work it out, it seems to me that if anyone wanted to hedge their Spurs series wager, the Billups/Rasheed MVP play would be the way to go. At +735 combined, it's much cheaper than the Det series line, even if you were to use the # of games.

[llabb]

I know I'm posting tons of stuff everywhere, not sure if it's too long and a waste of time, or people are reading it and agree or disagree. Anyone else have any thoughts or feedback on the NBA, should I bother posting?

Anyway, basketball is my best sport, and it'll soon be over. I've done okay so far, but I'm gonna be itching for action this summer, so I decided to try and finish with a bang and get as much out of my system as I can. Which means that I'm going to look for props and make tons of plays, as long as I think they're even slightly +EV.

Since I'll be posting so many, and I'm taking each one for different amounts, I'll use the standard 1* to 5* ranking system. I think for most cappers, the star rankings=units=%'s. So you'd play a 5* pick for 5 units, which is 5% of your sports betting bankroll.

I think this high % on each play can be disastrous, and what ruins so many sports bettors. Since we as poker players have experienced so much variance, it's easy to see how it applies to sports betting as well. You could eventually hit a bad patch and be down 10 plays sheerly due to variance. Yet that would wipe out half your bankroll. To compare this bankroll management to Sit 'N Go's, it's like playing at a limit where you only have 20 buy-ins before you go broke.

So what I now do myself, is to still use the traditional *=unit=ranking system, so that I can still evaluate and use other people's picks, but I have modified it to where my bankroll stands around 300 units, instead of the standard 100. So each unit is actually more like 0.3% of my bankroll, and I have room for 60 5* plays instead of other people's mere 20 plays. If I somehow lose 100 units and fall down to 200 (which would be bankrupt in other cappers' money mgmt systems), I decrease my unit size to give myself 300 units once more.

--------------------------------------------------

So all the normal Game plays I've already discussed, like the Under in Gm 2, and the Det/Under teaser, are 5* plays. The series and MVP plays are rare and huge 10* plays if you use the hedged versions. I'm also going to use my Game 1 winnings for more action on Game 2, to make a 2* parlay on Det +6 & Under 171, as well as a speculative 2* play on the Det ML at +250. Now for some early props, with perhaps even more to come later. Assume normal -110 line, unless otherwise stated. Analysis too long to give, but all of these are supported by the data, usually hitting around 60-70% of the time. Be careful, though, these are just one man's thoughts.

Pinnacle quarter lines:
3* play: SA -1.5 1st quarter
3* play: Under 42.5 3rd quarter
3* play: Over 43 4th quarter

WSEX Game 2 props:
5* play: Will Rip lead team in scoring? No. +100
3* play: Will Duncan lead team in scoring? No. +140
1* play: Will Rasheed get a technical? Yes. +200
1* play: Rasheed Game 2 highest scorer. +600
1* play: Billups Game 2 highest scorer. +450

[miami32]

llab I think your stuff is great actually and I def read it. Basketball is my worst game, with football, and ACC college football even better. If I could find someone to help us with baseball we would have internet sports books in trouble...

[Runner Runner]

No offense guys but I have to think playing these props is similar to sitting in a poker game with 20% rake. No matter how bad the players are, they just aren't worth it.

That being said, I am going with the same prediction as game 1, San Antonio to cover. A 6 point spread is just not enough points against these guys at home. It's too bad, cause I just can't stand the Spurs. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[llabb]

You're partially correct, Runner. The juice on props is horrible. I often see coin-flip prop wagers listed as -120 on *both* sides. Ugh. So yes, you could definitey compare it to sitting in a poker room with a rake of 20%.

The flipside is that the lines are often set horribly by the books, giving players the opportunity to take advantage of bad lines. The books seem to nail the actual game lines, and make good money off the public, but they put less time into props, and it's harder to cap all the types of props they put out. So they figure they'll make money off the huge amount of juice they charge. But sometimes the lines are so incredibly bad, that it's like sitting at a poker table where one horrendous player singlehandedly gives you 20 BB/hr. At that rate, I don't care about the crappy rake, just give me the money!

As an example, see my last prop thread:
Det-SA Game 1 Props

That's a prime case in point: Rip to lead his team against SA in scoring or not, with the No being +120. In the last two seasons, he never did it once! And three different players each beat him several times. But the book is giving me the chance to bet on the *entire* rest of the team, for just one of them to beat Rip, while he's being locked down by one of the best defenders in the game? And at +120, I not only do not have to lay any odds, but get bonus $$ on the play?! Assuming this line already includes horrendous prop juice, the book is just plain stupid here! They must be banking on even stupider players, who just think that Rip=scoring for Detroit, no matter what. And they're even continuing to offer the same horrible play for Game 2! Made the line worse, but it's still even money. I'd take it down to at least -150. In fact, positive EV on this play would probably go all the way to -400, but I just don't like betting things past -200 unless it's a virtual certainty in my mind.

Anyway, props - both series futures and individual plays - are one of my stronger categories, around 65-70%, and I've been super fortunate to luckbox this playoffs, going 6-0 on NBA series futures, and 4-0 on Game 1 props. Also the additional 2nd half under, if you count quarter or halftime lines as props.

[20Five]

[ QUOTE ]
You're partially correct, Runner. The juice on props is horrible. I often see coin-flip prop wagers listed as -120 on *both* sides. Ugh. So yes, you could definitey compare it to sitting in a poker room with a rake of 20%.

The flipside is that the lines are often set horribly by the books, giving players the opportunity to take advantage of bad lines. The books seem to nail the actual game lines, and make good money off the public, but they put less time into props, and it's harder to cap all the types of props they put out. So they figure they'll make money off the huge amount of juice they charge. But sometimes the lines are so incredibly bad, that it's like sitting at a poker table where one horrendous player singlehandedly gives you 20 BB/hr. At that rate, I don't care about the crappy rake, just give me the money!

[/ QUOTE ]

From what I can usually tell with prop bets in almost all cases is that there is hardly any depth or backing put into the line aside from general statistical information regarding the prop.. I dont really look at props too often, but everytime I do when I look up some numbers regarding the player or team or situation, its generally awfully close to their season avgs and etc.

just my two cents, good luck with the bets [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[llabb]

5* play Rasheed Wallace Over 22.5 points, rebs, and assists -135 Intertops