99 - value bet this river?

Akimka · #1 06-09-2005, 07:45 AM

Villain VPIP 40, pfr 0 (but no one hands for him where he should raise but don't raised) postflop agr 0.11
I don't think he can employ fancy things...

Value bet river?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, 3 folds, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.40 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls.

River: (6.70 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 6.70 BB

Escape · #2 06-09-2005, 07:51 AM

No? what hand is he calling you with that you beat?

Nick C · #3 06-09-2005, 07:55 AM

I'd probably check behind on the turn and hope for an 8 on the river (and also hope a 9 or queen would make my hand best).

I don't see much of a value bet on the river. I think MP1 most likely has a better hand and won't fold (though he might checkraise).

Akimka · #4 06-09-2005, 07:55 AM

66,88?
Other question - can I fold QQ here?

Akimka · #5 06-09-2005, 07:58 AM

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I'd probably check behind on the turn and hope for an 8 on the river (and also hope a 9 or queen would make my hand best).

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I particullary don't like check behind on turn because his bet on river if A will come will mean anything (bluff?)... In this case I can safely fold when he bet this Ace.

Nick C · #6 06-09-2005, 08:09 AM

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I'd probably check behind on the turn and hope for an 8 on the river (and also hope a 9 or queen would make my hand best).

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I particullary don't like check behind on turn because his bet on river if A will come will mean anything (bluff?)... In this case I can safely fold when he bet this Ace.

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Unless Villain all of a sudden got frisky preflop, I think the chances that you're ahead on the turn are pretty small. You do have some potential outs, though. (However, I wouldn't feel too comfortable if I caught a queen.) The chances of getting Villain to fold a better hand don't seem very good to me, either, since he probably at least has a pair and a gutshot.

I'm not sure I see the point of putting in a bet on the turn in order to give you information about whether to call on the river if a scary card hits. (And, actually, the board seems plenty scary enough to me already, since I only have 99 and am up against someone who raised preflop for the first time since he sat down.)

Akimka · #7 06-09-2005, 08:11 AM

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I'm not sure I see the point of putting in a bet on the turn in order to give you information about whether to call on the river if a scary card hits. (And, actually, the board seems plenty scary enough to me already, since I only have 99 and am up against someone who raised preflop for the first time since he sat down.)

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So - check behind turn and call any non A river? Is it better way to play this hand?

Nick C · #8 06-09-2005, 08:21 AM

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I'm not sure I see the point of putting in a bet on the turn in order to give you information about whether to call on the river if a scary card hits. (And, actually, the board seems plenty scary enough to me already, since I only have 99 and am up against someone who raised preflop for the first time since he sat down.)

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So - check behind turn and call any non A river? Is it better way to play this hand?

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I'm not sure I'd call unimproved on the river if a complete blank fell.

What range of hands are you putting MP1 on? Based on the stats you gave, he seems like a very passive player. I know he just check-called the flop, but he could just be scared because you 3-bet preflop. (Or perhaps he flopped a monster and decided to slowplay.)

I guess maybe a turn check from you would prompt him to bet the river with 88 or 66-22, but that's not really what I'd expect him to have in the first place, and I'm not sure he'd bet the river with those hands if he did have them.

I guess I'm saying the board is a very unfavorable one for your 99, versus a preflop raiser.

Chris Daddy Cool · #9 06-09-2005, 08:24 AM

its not a value bet. its a bluff. so the real question you should ask yourself is... is it going to work?

Nick C · #10 06-09-2005, 08:26 AM

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Other question - can I fold QQ here?

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I very much doubt your opponent would fold QQ -- on the river or the turn.

(Look at the board again. I think you're missing something here.)