A very fun and tough hand Party 10-20

[Jason Strasser]

Four handed. This hand is vs. teacuppoker who is a very aggresive player who I am very sure wins in this game. I respect his play but he is far from a nit.

I have $2300, he has me well covered. UTG folds, teacup makes it $70 to go on the button, SB calls I call with 7s6s.

Flop: [ 8c, 9h, Kc ]

SB checks I lead for $140 teacup calls sb folds.

Turn Tc. I check, teacup bets $400 I call.

River Th. I check and call $1200.

Results and thoughts to come later.

-Jason

[technologic]

several thoughts come to mind...

could be TJ or T7, but i feel like villain would not bet that much on the river with that kind of a hand...

another is AA with Ac, figuring you for AK perhaps.

there is a good possibility that villain saw the club as a good scare card against you, since you seem to have indicated on the flop that you had a somewhat made hand, and that he's following through on the river.

i believe that the latter is probably more likely which may have made you to call? hmmm

[muzungu]

Jason-

Damn, this is a tough one. Let's go street by street here.

Flop: ya, leading is good, check/calling and playing back on any 5/T/club might be worth considering.

Turn: OK, this is clearly the crux of the hand. My first thought is that any 7,J, Q or club will make a one card straight or flush here, that is not so good for you. I guess you are playing as if you are "drawing"- check-calling for a safe card and then hoping to pick off a river bet. This seems reasonable, but perhaps there is better.

I think my first thought here was to lead, hoping for a bluff raise. One big question with this plan is how you stand if he calls. This is roughly the same as check/calling, but I don't know which leaves you in a better place in terms of the river action. I guess I would probably go with whichever of the two seemed more consistent with eliciting a big river bluff.

River: well, i think you got what you were looking for here. I don't have a sense of what this bet means at this level, at my stakes this is usually a bluff. The thing is, the river compromised many of the made hands that beat you, so if he can make a full bet like this with QJ or a small flush that is a really ballsy play. I think he is gonna play a set faster on the flop. I call and expect to be winning maybe half the time. Perhaps less, but definitely enough to call. In terms of specific reads, I feel like the level of play here is high enough that you can't pin it down much further. I think you are gonna see something like:

flush: 25%
KT: 15%
flopped set/QJ: 10%
bluff: 50% (I don't see him betting any losers for value like this.)


Edit: arrgh, didn't realize we were 4-handed here. I guess that means he will bet the occasional loser for value, and be a little more willing to keep firing on the river with QJ/small flush. Sigh... read first, then think, then type.

-muz

[AZK]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see him betting any losers

[/ QUOTE ]

I see him betting a big K like this as the river now counterfeits 89.

[muzungu]

Umm, that is a silly reason to bet, if you put him on 89 he is not calling $1200, so why worry about that hand? Only worry about what he can call with.

[Jason Strasser]

Muz, nice post.

Here is the thing for me. The turn was a very interesting card. If I had bet the turn two things happen:

1) He may give up on a bluff or decide that his AK AA or whatever hand that I beat is no good.

2) He may be able to semibluff me off the hand.

If have to say, this, IMO, is not a very easy situation if I bet the turn and get raised. Yes its four handed, yes he's aggressive, but gosh if I lead turn and he called or even raised I still wouldn't have a great feel for where I was.

As the hand went, the river is real tricky. My opponent may value bet (esp 4 handed) many hands that he believes are good because the value of my hand is pretty well concealed. I have no doubt this bet could be a flush, but it could also be a bluff or AK or even AA. He probably doesnt think I'd check a flush or a boat or three of a kind even to him on the river in this spot. I tend to block a lot of rivers and he knows this.

Anyhow, this hand might've been easier if I had checked the flop and kept things under control with a pretty crappy draw.

-Jason

[Jason Strasser]

To echo muz, this logic makes no sense.

-Jason

[Rotating Rabbit]

Ok well i'll go out on a limb here:

Some very smart thoughts above. But I wanted to highlight one thing which concerns me: The T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is the ultimate scare card for anyone who it didnt help. When hero check-calls this turn, villian should realise his bluff equity is zero for nearly all rivers. Two possibilities, either T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] helped hero in which case a river bluff has a very low % of success, or the T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] didnt help, but hero has a decent made hand he's probably not going to part with.

The T on the river does not give villian cause to believe his bluff equity has increased. Heros check-call-check looks massively likely that hero has a strong 2pair hand. But, and this is the crucial point, given that hero called the boogey turn, villian has cause to believe hero will call again. This does not look a smart place to bluff.

So in my opinion, the crucial question is: is villian value betting trip tens or AA? For an aggressive player 4-handed, semi bluffing 10J on this turn is all ok, and then he would have reason to believe he could value bet the river, with the bonus of disguise.

Unfortunately he would also play a flush the same way, and with two Ts on board, there are lots of combinations of the flush, and only two combinations of 10Js, and 6 of AA.

Its a close decision, and probably right about 30% of the time you'll win. So a fold/call on the river seems rather academic. I thought you played the hand well though. You got max-ahead/min-behind regardless of who won.

[AJo Go All In]

[ QUOTE ]
But I wanted to highlight one thing which concerns me: The T is the ultimate scare card for anyone who it didnt help. When hero check-calls this turn, villian should realise his bluff equity is zero for nearly all rivers. Two possibilities, either T helped hero in which case a river bluff has a very low % of success, or the T didnt help, but hero has a decent made hand he's probably not going to part with.

The T on the river does not give villian cause to believe his bluff equity has increased. Heros check-call-check looks massively likely that hero has a strong 2pair hand. But, and this is the crucial point, given that hero called the boogey turn, villian has cause to believe hero will call again. This does not look a smart place to bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry, but this is basically complete gibberish.

[Rotating Rabbit]

okay, can you elaborate?