Smells like a continuation bet?

Leaky Game · #1 06-09-2005, 12:43 AM

Villian had been around for a few orbits...didn't pf raise a lot, didn't see that many pots. 25%/5%

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

BB ($78.65)
UTG ($70.75)
UTG+1 ($76.5)
MP1 ($99.75)
MP2 ($23.7)
MP3 ($95.5)
CO ($90.9)
Hero ($148.7)
SB ($47)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, 4 folds, Hero calls $3, SB (poster) calls $2.50, 1 fold.

Flop: ($10) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets $5, Hero raises to $15

Good move? I'm thinking he's been playing solid cards, as long as he doesn't have a PP, he's folding. Didn't think he'd raise in EP with Jx.

I've been REAL tight the whole time.

TreyOfLight · #2 06-09-2005, 01:00 AM

I like your target selection but dislike the timing. Having SB still in the hand is a little awkward / risky (though the board is mostly drawless and if he calls you know where you stand).

If EP is real tight, you put him squarely on QQ-AA (maybe JJ, ugh) and AK. Those occur with about equal frequency; if he sometimes limps AK in EP then the overpair is more likely. You're trying to sell a big big hand here (smoothcalled AA or a set) and that's always a challenge. He could easily put you on AJ and grind you up.

I like this move better with an A-high flop. It's almost an automatic laydown for KK/QQ, and if he has AK he knows his holding is obvious and he's forced to wonder why on earth you're raising into it.

You may also be reading too much into his bet size: on a safe board like this I'd bet about half-pot with QQ-AA, hoping for calls from overcards, TT, JT, etc., and of course bluff raises from donks who think my small bet signals weakness [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]. I hope it worked out for you.

soah · #3 06-09-2005, 01:42 AM

If you think he is only playing solid cards then wtf are you doing calling his EP raise with AQ?

fimbulwinter · #4 06-09-2005, 01:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you think he is only playing solid cards then wtf are you doing calling his EP raise with AQ?

[/ QUOTE ]

this is the correct answer

Suntzu00000 · #5 06-09-2005, 01:57 AM

I think you're taking a big risk here. UTG could easily have a pocket pair here or a set. I dont disagree with playing a read. If you put this guy on AK and its a strong feeling I would back your play. The problem I see here is that this play is rather expensive. With this bet you are essentially giving yourself even money odds that he will fold. I am going to guess that he did not. However, you still have outs.

tommo · #6 06-09-2005, 02:40 AM

hey. Why don't you just watch some of his hands and take some notes on him. Whenever I am sitting at a table I have very clear notes on most of the players as to how much they make continuation bets with and how much they bet when they have the goods. You'd be shocked how often you find people who make continuation bets a different size than their value bets.

Its true that you can beat these guys just by playing the cards better than them. But you can beat them better just by taking notes on them. READS READS READS. Don't make a move unless you have a READ!

fuzzbox · #7 06-09-2005, 05:22 AM

Looks good - make it 20 though - it has more kick.

fuzzbox · #8 06-09-2005, 05:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I like your target selection but dislike the timing. Having SB still in the hand is a little awkward / risky (though the board is mostly drawless and if he calls you know where you stand).

If EP is real tight, you put him squarely on QQ-AA (maybe JJ, ugh) and AK. Those occur with about equal frequency; if he sometimes limps AK in EP then the overpair is more likely. You're trying to sell a big big hand here (smoothcalled AA or a set) and that's always a challenge. He could easily put you on AJ and grind you up.

I like this move better with an A-high flop. It's almost an automatic laydown for KK/QQ, and if he has AK he knows his holding is obvious and he's forced to wonder why on earth you're raising into it.

You may also be reading too much into his bet size: on a safe board like this I'd bet about half-pot with QQ-AA, hoping for calls from overcards, TT, JT, etc., and of course bluff raises from donks who think my small bet signals weakness [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]. I hope it worked out for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doing this on an A-high board is not a bluff !! :-)

TreyOfLight · #9 06-09-2005, 05:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like this move better with an A-high flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doing this on an A-high board is not a bluff !! :-)

[/ QUOTE ]

EXACTLY! What's not to like?

But I would still like it when holding a mid-PP, Mr. Smarty Pants.

fuzzbox · #10 06-09-2005, 05:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like this move better with an A-high flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doing this on an A-high board is not a bluff !! :-)

[/ QUOTE ]

EXACTLY! What's not to like?

But I would still like it when holding a mid-PP, Mr. Smarty Pants.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you dont like the stone-cold bluffiness of it all then ?

What difference does it make what cards you hold in this particular example ? Hero is attempting to play villains lack of cards, rather than heros actual cards.