50/100 side game at WSOP

[Enon]

A hand I witnessed:

Decent TAG player opens utg+1, gets cold called by 3 players, new millionaire tourney winner 3 bets with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the BB, utg+1 just calls, as does 2 callers except loose bad button who decides to make it 4 bets and tourney winner caps in the BB, utg+1 calls, one cold caller drops (!!) and the rest call.

4 to the flop for 23.5 sb: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Tourney winner (TW) checks his AKo, Tag who initially raised it utg+1 bets, asian lady raises and all others drop, TW cold calls, utg+1 makes it 3 bets, asian lady drops getting a about 30-1 (!!!) and TP calls.

Heads up to the turn for 16 BB : [T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

TW checks and calls a bet.

Is this turn call close?

[DcifrThs]

i think the tourney player did well on the flop to check, but when UTG bets and asian lady raises even though he's getting 12.75:1 on his cold call he doesn't close the action. this is exactly a type of board to hit cold callers and he has no club. if he assumes the action stops there then yea its a call due to pot size...but his effective odds on 3 bets are about 10:1 and his effective odds on 4 bets (assuming both stay in) are just over 8:1, PLUS he is in a position to hit and lose. its reverse implied odds are pretty high here.

i think once the asian lady raises, its time to be done with this hand, especially since its leaving the action open to the decent utg+1 player.

-Barron

[Senor Choppy]

Quickly giving the guy a hand range of 77-AA to make things simple, there are 5 hands where AK is drawing to a chop, with 3 that give him outs to win the whole thing. 18 combinations where he's dead to a chop, 15 where he has outs. Weighted only by possible card combinations and not likelihood of the various hands, he's got ~4 1/3 outs on average (a chop vs. AA counting for 2 outs, for example).

If we give the guy a hand range of only QQ-AA, he's still got 5 3/4 outs on average. Against KK-AA, he's got 3 1/2.

The only way I can see this being a fold is if you suspect the TAG is significantly more likely to have AA, 88, etc. that only give the TW outs to a chop. Once his hand range starts including other hands like KK, at 17-1, it's an easy call. If there's even the remote possibility of a hand like AKs, or even AT, it becomes even more of a no-brainer.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
If there's even the remote possibility of a hand like AKs, or even AT, it becomes even more of a no-brainer.

[/ QUOTE ]
From the way it's played out, I don't see why UTG+1 couldn't have A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]/A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]/K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Note that the last two give him a gutshot to go with his flush draw/ overcards.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If there's even the remote possibility of a hand like AKs, or even AT, it becomes even more of a no-brainer.

[/ QUOTE ]
From the way it's played out, I don't see why UTG+1 couldn't have A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]/A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]/K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Note that the last two give him a gutshot to go with his flush draw/ overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]

are you guys talking about the cold call for 2 getting 25.5:2 or 12.75:1 not closing the action? or the last 1bb call getting abillion :1?

-Barron

[Danielih]

Once it is heads up I think folding would be a big mistake.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
are you guys talking about the cold call for 2 getting 25.5:2 or 12.75:1 not closing the action? or the last 1bb call getting abillion :1?

[/ QUOTE ]
He said "If there's even the remote possibility of a hand like AKs, or even AT, it becomes even more of a no-brainer", so I was pointing out that this possibility certainly exists based on how the hand was played. I wasn't agreeing with calling or advocating any particular line. But, fwiw, I agree with you about folding for two cold on the flop.

[bobdibble]

fyt

[Senor Choppy]

[ QUOTE ]
From the way it's played out, I don't see why UTG+1 couldn't have A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]/A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]/K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Note that the last two give him a gutshot to go with his flush draw/ overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure those are all possibilities, but I thought it would make things more clear to show that even with a smaller range the call is still easily correct.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]


Is this turn call close?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know but I'm not making that fold.