Commerce 40-80 hand

[andyfox]

A hundred and one limpers, Commerce style, small blind, good, solid winning player who plays a bit too tight postflop, calls, and I check Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the BB.

Flop comes: K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Checked around.

Tun is A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Small blind bets.

OK, there aren't 101 players behind me, just four. Call, raise, or fold?

[Clarkmeister]

Call

[Paluka]

Seems like a call.

[Jeffage]

I'd pitch it. The pots small and it's not worth getting involved...plus the ace likely hit one of the limpers. Also, the SB may have slowplayed a floppe set or some such. If he's tight postflop, it's unlikely he's leading into the field when the ace (that can also make a flush) comes.

If you are going to continue, a raise is much better than a call though.

Jeff

[Jeffage]

Looking at this again, you do likely have the nut flush draw (since a K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] would have bet the flop with his pair). If you think this SB is tight you may want to raise if there's any chance he'd lay a king or weak ace down since he respects your raise.

Jeff

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
Looking at this again, you do likely have the nut flush draw (since a K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] would have bet the flop with his pair).

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't it reasonable to assume a SB holding K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] /weak kicker would often check the flop with the intention of checkraising a late bettor and perhaps taking one off against an early better?

~ Rick

[andyfox]

. . . called. All four call behind me. (!)

River is J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

So the board is now K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

I have Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Small blind bets.

Now what?

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
A hundred and one limpers, Commerce style, small blind, good, solid winning player who plays a bit too tight postflop, calls, and I check Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the BB.

Flop comes: K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Checked around.

Tun is A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Small blind bets.

OK, there aren't 101 players behind me, just four. Call, raise, or fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't imagine that you have any outs other than a heart or jack and I do think it's reasonably possible that a K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] held by the SB would check the flop and now bet the turn (see my response to Jeffage). Also, it's not likely but not impossible that the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is held by one of the limpers (perhaps they were going for a flop checkraise or a turn raise with two pair).

With potential 40/80 turn aggression behind you it's reasonable to assume you will sometimes be paying two bets to see the river (of course you fold if you call once and it comes back to you for two more bets with the potential for a cap).

Because you aren't drawing to the nut singleton heart, I'd discount your heart outs to seven. Add in your offsuit jacks and you have ten outs, as long as the flush isn't already out. Perhaps it's better to estimate your outs as approximately eight. When the SB bets the turn you are looking at a pot of four big bets and the chances of making your hand are about 4.8 to 1 with eight outs. If you make your hand with a heart don't expect to make much on the river. If you make your hand with an offsuit jack you can bet but probably want to just call if the SB continues to lead (especially if someone is still behind you).

If you were closing the action it's a call. But you aren't, at this level the likelihood of calling two bets on the installment plan is fairly high. Plan for this in advance by folding.

~ Rick

PS I did consider raising, but it doesn't appear to be right with this player betting into this board.

PPS I'll have a few minutes when I come back from swimming, so I actually might be able to respond the same day I post [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
. . . called. All four call behind me. (!)

River is J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

So the board is now K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

I have Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Small blind bets.

Now what?

[/ QUOTE ]

Getting the four callers on the turn wasn't something I thought of (is the 40/80 this soft?), rather the problem of a raise behind seemed to me the bigger danger.

With the player leading into five opponents, it is probable that he has the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. If not, someone else probably does. But now the pot is big. It's worth a call, but fold to any raise. With four hearts on board and your early call, you won't see a raise without the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

~ Rick

PS I'm getting a sinking feeling this hand has a happy ending which will make my advice look dumb.

[andyfox]

'I'm getting a sinking feeling this hand has a happy ending which will make my advice look dumb."

It's always happy for somebody. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Your advice won't look dumb no matter the ending.

Could this tightass be betting into five opponents anything other than the King of trump?