AK Bubble Post

[Myst]

I know AK doesnt play well 3 handed. Does that make this a bubble fold? I went with my instincts and did.

FWIW, if it just me and the original big stack raiser, I insta repush all in b/c I could see him doing it with 22+, A2+, KQ, QT type hands.

#Game No : 2168248934
***** Hand History for Game 2168248934 *****
NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:12881587 Level:5 Blinds(100/200) - Tuesday, June 07, 01:59:08 EDT 2005
Table Table 14003 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: passpok ( $865 )
Seat 6: gerrard4 ( $4175 )
Seat 7: mkiller50 ( $1925 )
Seat 8: Mystraised ( $1035 )
Trny:12881587 Level:5
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Mystraised [ As Kd ]
passpok folds.
gerrard4 raises [600].
mkiller50 calls [500].
Mystraised folds.

[momo24]

You can't fold here. After posting you have less than 5xBB and you should be excited about the possibility of tripling up here. You aren't going to get a better shot than AKo.

[Myst]

No offense, but do you realize Im only a 33 % favorite to win the hand here with both players in it?

I just ran ICM on it for big stack's pushing ranging, and its, at best, a .8% +EV call. Now how does that get better with two players in the pot?

[momo24]

I guess we can see what others think, but a couple points. Do you realize that when you're talking about a chance to triple up, then a 33% chance to win is even CEV, and when you have less than 5xBB that might be as much as you can hope for.

+.8% EV is significant, you can't pass that up when you have such a short stack. How does the second player help? You triple up and you're the chip leader and there are two short stacks, that's makes finishing in the money quite a bit more likely.

[Myst]

I would never pass up .8 +$EV, but that only applies when there is only me and the big stack.

With two or more players in the pot already, the value of AK goes way down. You have to also keep in mind that there are going to be times that small blind with bust when he plays along with the big stack, and I get 3rd place by default. Its too much of a calculation though to see how that will affect my overall EV.

[chisness]

How does the value of AK go way down? I can understand this for TT/JJ type hands, but if AK hits it's usually going to be good, unlike almost any other hand.

[Scuba Chuck]

LOL, I prolly fold this (don't know if that's wrong). There's another stack shorter than you yet, which would make this even easier for me. FWIW, I can't tell you how often I do this, and the two big stacks collide, leaving a superstack and two shorties ITM.

Scuba

[Myst]

JJ/TT in this situation would make this a very easy all in. Do yo usee why?

Big pairs always do better against those range of hands then AK, esp 3 handed.

I think this is a marginal situation, where I can see pushing/folding being the best play.