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#1
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I'm sure there have been posts about this but i couldnt really find them so i think i will just make a new one.
When i look at my cards and see a a sexy, suited connector like, 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], i just love it. I'm wondering what the correct play is with these cards. I mean obviously if i call a raise with these hands, i'm being beat preflop to an A or pocket pair, but i'm going for the draws and if i remember correctly, in Phil Helmuths book(briefly glanced through while waiting at the airport[the only poker literature i have ever touched]}, i am going for the draws here and if i hit my flush/straight, i am bound to get a huge pot, almost making the call worth it. Another thing i;ve considered is raising with thsese kinds of hands and giving the impression of being really strong and hoping for a low flop which i can raise on appearing to be bluffing with just AK or something of that manner. Of course, i could run into trouble with 89 and a board of 3 5 9 against QQ. I guess what i'm wondering is the opinions you guys have on suited connectors, whether you play them? when you play them? and how you like playing them if you do? Thanks The Glievz |
#2
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[ QUOTE ]
i am going for the draws here and if i hit my flush/straight, i am bound to get a huge pot, almost making the call worth it. [/ QUOTE ] Almost doesn't cut it. |
#3
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Of course they are an attractive set of hole cards (98s)! My table of hand strengths, which is based on no decisions at all, shows 98s less strong than 77 and stronger than 66. Being a beginner, I simply don't know how to play anything, much less 98s or 77 or 66, but I expect to learn eventually. Of course 77 and 66 are "made" hands, and their strength is obvious. 98s is a drawing hand. To what? Of course, to start 9 has 3 outs to a pair of nines and 8 has 3 outs to a pair of eights. Very many combinations of cards can benefit 98s, towards the straight and flush. A pair of 77 has only 2 outs to improve to trips, and trips are inferior to straight or flush. Bottom line, if a million hands were played where 98s is given, and all the other cards are random (a Monte Carlo run), 98s will beat 66 if 66 is handled with a similar Monte Carlo run.
All sorts of conjecture is possible, concerning how frequently quads are made (they happen even for both 9 and 8 in 98s), trips are made etc etc. But the Monte Carlo gets right down to the nitty gritty. Importantly, a different result happens when 98s is forced to compete directly with 66. I haven't done that run, but it's quite possible 66 would have a slight advantage over 98s, even though the opposite is true when doing the comparison with each set of hole cards done separately. Another 2+2 fellow kindly pointed out that Mike Caro has built a product that conducts the Monte Carlo for one set of hole cards vs another, and then gives the user the list of how every single one of the million hands was resolved (in statistical form, of course). If I recall the product is called "Poker Probe," and costs about $60. It requires about 1 minute of computer time to do this sort of Monte Carlo run, if you're interested. Dave |
#4
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Ranking the middle 'speculative' type hands, and in this I include your mid suited connectors and pocket pairs, cannot be done without including the number of players in the pot.
For example, 'shows 98s less strong than 77 and stronger than 66.' In a 7 handed pot (counting the player with 98s), the 98s has roughly 17.7% equity where the 66 has slightly less around 17.4%. Giving, as you stated 98s a slight edge. But now if we look at a 2 handed pot (not 98s vs. 66 but each hand vs another independant random hand). 98s has ~50.8% equity, slightly above even, where 66 has 63%ish equity. Putting 66 far ahead of 98s. Anyways I just wanted to point out that your post may be slightly misleading, when replying to a new player in saying 'this hand is stronger then that hand' when obviously hand strength varies greatly (especially for hands like suited connectors) depending on the number of players in the pot. (All numbers culled from monte carlo's in pokerstove.) T |
#5
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You are exactly correct, that hand strengths depend on the number of competitors you face. Heads-up play is very different than playing against a bunch of players.
What number of competitors do I base my hand strengths on? You'd guessed 7, and that's very close, actually! In fact, I used 8 competitors. Why? Because I prefer to play in games on PokerStars that have 9 seats. Often enough one seat is either vacant or the occupant is "sitting out." So I've simplified my thought process to limit to 8 seats playing actively. In fact, hand strengths aren't significantly different, based on number of players, until one gets down to the few or one competitor level. Thus, your example is at the extreme, though a very relevant example! What I was trying to do is demonstrate the possibility of comparing seemingly very different hands: a low pair with a middle suited connectors pair. It's a stretch to make this comparison, as different as these hands are, and that's why the thread has utility! Your comments, which incorporated expectancy value, added to how I do hand strengths, and hence was useful to me. It would be very interesting to me if you would tell more about PokerStove! Is it possible for you to set up a new thread, showing exactly how one does Monte Carlo calculations on PokerStove? Otherwise, riding this thread would be useful enough for me, and thanks! I ask because I'm a beginner at poker, yet in my other life I used Monte Carlo in my nuclear engineering activities, and also with commodity futures. Of course, I'd used Monte Carlo to check "Basic Strategy" tables, with blackjack, and this was done about the same time Braun published his book detailing his Monte Carlo study of blackjack. When I do Monte Carlo with poker, it will be my freestanding effort. Hence I'm very interested in PokerStove, to permit some sort of emmination. Dave |
#6
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[ QUOTE ]
When i look at my cards and see a a sexy, suited connector like, 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], i just love it. I'm wondering what the correct play is with these cards. [/ QUOTE ] Like most poker decisions, the answer is "it depends". Number of limpers, betting structure (limit vs. no-limit), and position are biggies. |
#7
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89s is playable in late position, if there are a few people limping in ahead of you. I would not recommend it in early position, first in w/no limpers, and definitely not cold calling against a raise (though limp-calling a raise after you is generally okay).
if you are on or close to the button, there are many limpers and you feel a good number of them are weak, you could consider raising preflop to increase your expectation should you manage to hit something. this play actually works for other speculative hands as well, such as Axs and middle pocket pairs. on the flop you are looking for two pair, low trips that high card limping hands won't outkick, 4-flushes, open-ended or double gutshot straight draws. play made hands (including high pair) and strong draws aggressively, take a free card on the turn if you're earned one. if you only hit middle or low pair, you are likely already behind overcards or a stronger draw. your decision to take one card off depends on how many of your 5 outs are clear-cut improvements (meaning that it won't potentially make someone else a straight or flush). for example, with 89s I might pay to see the turn on a board of K94 rainbow, but probably not T85. and if all you have is a backdoor flush draw, just say no! that's about a 1-in-20 shot at best and you may not even have the nuts. oh, and ditch the hellmuth book. there are tons better to start your poker career on, just browse the appropriate forums. |
#8
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[ QUOTE ]
When i look at my cards and see a a sexy, suited connector like, 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], i just love it. I'm wondering what the correct play is with these cards. [/ QUOTE ] Medium suited connectors are a speculative hand. All hands like this are best against many players because you'll rarely hit your hand hard, but when you do you want a lot of people there to pay you for those times you didn't hit. Also, you want to see the flop cheaply because, as I said, it's speculative, and it's best to speculate cheaply. The more you pay, the you'll need your opponents to pay you off when you hit. This all boils down to only playing this hand in late position with many limpers and with passive players after you so you're not calling a raise. I don't really recommend cold calling with something like this, however, I might raise if I'm on the button and almost all players are already in for two bets. If the flop doesn't hit you, and hit you hard, you toss this hand. If you have a four flush, four straight or two pair after the flop, play on. [ QUOTE ] I mean obviously if i call a raise with these hands [/ QUOTE ] Don't cold call raises. Raise if you want to continue, but don't call. I really think cold calling is only right after the flop when slowplaying a true monster hand. [ QUOTE ] am going for the draws here and if i hit my flush/straight, i am bound to get a huge pot, almost making the call worth it. [/ QUOTE ] If you make your flush, you may not get as much money as you think you will. Everyone will see the flush out there and shut down. Playing for "almost" is -EV. If the implied odds aren't there to cover you, you're losing money. [ QUOTE ] Of course, i could run into trouble with 89 and a board of 3 5 9 against QQ. [/ QUOTE ] See, "hitting your hand hard" above. [ QUOTE ] I guess what i'm wondering is the opinions you guys have on suited connectors, whether you play them? when you play them? and how you like playing them if you do? [/ QUOTE ] Suited connectors are fun to play and have good implied odds if you hit. If you're playing no-limit hold'em, they can be crushing when you flop good and your opponent catches something. I would suggest you read a book, besides the Hellmuth book, soon. Read Ed Miller's Getting Started In Hold'em where he answers questions like this and more. Regards, T Beginner's Poker FAQ |
#9
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I tend to play a flush draw with medium suited connectors very carefully, as there are quite a few overcards that can beat you for a higher flush. Hell, I spook easily when I hold a King high flush [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
Also, be aware of which end of the straight you are drawing to. Of course, all this has been said, so I'm basically just post-count whoring [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] JunkHead |
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