passive postflop against a TAG

[DMBFan23]

SB is TAG, I don't have a pokertracker stat on him but he is tight and solid. (s)he probably posts here.

I smooth called the flop because that's how I'd play an A, and I thought a smoothcall would be scary enough to get me a free card as much or more often than a raise would, and I dont like putting money in when I'm likely behind if that is not part of the equation.

anywhere I can throw a raise in here (turn)?

should I call the river?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (7 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>

[Part Time Baller]

What could SB have here? Given his preflop 3 bet, I'd give him an ace, a good jack, a pocket pair, or KQ on the flop. What you want to do here is be able to raise the flop for the free card, but how often will that work? You'll most likely get 3-bet by an ace, unless he's got a really weak kicker. If he's got a pocket pair below jacks, he may just give up right there. KQ will call and give you a freebie.

What it comes down to is how he'll react with a jack, KK-QQ, or a weak ace in the face of a flop raise. If he's more inclined to slow down, then you should raise for a free card. If he'll stay aggressive with these holdings, then raising is just chip dumping.

The river is tough- it's hard to gauge where you are since there were no raises in the hand. I think you can find a fold though, you're really only beating lower pocket pairs right now, and SB probably wouldn't bet the river with those anyways.

[climber]

I raise the flop. I think your flop smoothcall has about zero chance of scaring him or getting you a free card. I think people think a lot less at 5/10 than you are giving them credit for.

I'd fold the river. The only thing I see you beating is 77 or 88 which would probably be trying to check/call the river instead of betting into you yet again.

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]
I raise the flop. I think your flop smoothcall has about zero chance of scaring him or getting you a free card. I think people think a lot less at 5/10 than you are giving them credit for.

I'd fold the river. The only thing I see you beating is 77 or 88 which would probably be trying to check/call the river instead of betting into you yet again.

[/ QUOTE ]

this dude thinks, but I was thinking the same thing you were about the river

[JrJordan]

He might consider your flop call as an A, but if he's smart he also knows that there are a lot of draws you could have here and he needs to chareg you for it with his KJ. My standard line would be to raise the flop. When the turn hits your T as well, I'd be very tempted to fire a semi-bluff on the turn as well. Eh, on second thought there's just too good a chance he hit this board some how so I take the free river card.

[DMBFan23]

Hey all,

before I do the EV calculation, someone check my range here.

I'm assuming that if I just call the turn he will bet any A he has on the river for value, as well as KJ, KK, QQ (in addition to the obvious AJ, AT, JJ, TT, KQ, AA etc bets)

below I've listed what I think his range might be, what my outs are, and what he will do if I raise the turn

AA – 3 combos, 6.33 outs, I get 3 bet
KK – 6 combos, 13.5 outs, he folds
QQ - 6 combos, 13.5 outs, he folds
JJ – 3 combos, 6.33 outs, I get 3 bet
TT – 3 combos, 7 outs, I get 3 bet
99 – 6 combos (discounted to 4 because he led the turn), 14 outs, he folds
88 – 6 combos (discounted to 4 because he led the turn), 14 outs, he folds
77 – 6 combos (discounted to 4 because he led the turn), 14 outs, he folds

AK – 11 combos, ~13.5 outs, he calls the turn and bet calls K or bet-3bets a Q
AhKh – 1 combo, 5 outs, I get 3 bet on the turn
AQ – 11 combos, ~ 13.5 outs, he calls the turn and bet calls Q or bet-3bets a K
AhQh – 1 combo, 5 outs, I get 3 bet on the turn
AJ – 9 combos, 10.66 outs, I get 3 bet
AT – 6 combos, 8.66 outs, I get 3 bet
A9 – 11 combos, ~13.5 outs, he calls and c/calls the river UI
Ah9h – 1 combo, 5 outs, he calls and bet - 3 bets a river heart, bet call a 9, c/call UI?
A8s – 2 combos, ~10.5 outs, he calls and c/calls the river UI
A7s – 2 combos, ~10.5 outs, he calls and c/calls the river UI
Ah7h – 1 combo, 5 outs, he calls and bet - 3 bets a river heart, bet call a 9, c/call UI?

KQ – 16 combos, 8.6 outs, I get 3 bet
KJ – 12 combos, ~13.5 outs, he calls and checks the river
KTs – 3 combos, 12 outs, he calls and checks the river

QJs 2 combos (discounted to 6 because he probably doesn’t have it preflop) – 14 outs - he calls and then bet calls a Q, checks the river UI
QhJh – 1 combo, 5 outs, same as QJs but he bet-3 bets a river heart

in particular - should I widen his range? should I remove 77-99 when he bets the turn? are my reactions to a turn raise for SB reasonable?

[SparkyDog]

Well if you're going to flat call the flop thinking that'll show strength you have to follow through and raise the turn. You'll have some fold equity and you've got the heart draw and two pair/trip outs to fall back on. And the pot is a decent sized with you getting 2.75-2 on your bluff. The only real disaster here is getting three-bet, and putting in 3 bets with about 35%-40% equity, but that's only going to happen with a set and strong aces, which isn't that often.

And you'd check behind on the river obviously.

[DMBFan23]

I wasnt thinking that'll show strength necessarily, jus that it wouldnt necessarily mean less strength than a raise. I think at 6 max against a TAG I'd rather not get 3 bet on the flop. on the turn, I pick up a pair so now I have some more outs and possibly some folding equity. but looking at his range, it is not looking like it will work often enough. I will have to do tha math later.

[DMBFan23]

ok I knew I recognized the name, so I searched the forums, and TStoneMBD was my opponent here. if you want to look at your hand range and modify it, or PM me what you had here, that'd be tits.

in particualar, how you react on the river with some of the holdings I listed, given that I raise the turn.

[TStoneMBD]

how do you know my username? i dont give that out to anybody although its slipped a couple times i guess. dont mention it pls.

edit: i searched for the name and realized i made a slip before. whoops.

do you have results on my showdown? cause i dont remember this hand.