32o against LAG -- applying Sklansky's 8 mistakes

Hoi Polloi · #1 06-06-2005, 06:05 PM

Villain sat down with $22.7 and I thought: here's a guy who's just looking to loose the rest of his bankroll and be done with it. I was hoping to help out. 15 minutes later he's up $100 playing crap and showing down crap. Showed down Q4o with no pair, for example.

At the same time, I've been studying Sklansky's essay The Eight Mistakes of Poker because I'm only making five of them. In his discussion of mistake #6: Folding When You Should Raise he suggests that it may be correct to raise when you are drawing with 1 card to come without the odds to call.

In the present case, I don't have the odds to call my OESD on the turn, but I'm thinking my pair outs may be good as villain has been showing down some weird hands.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero checks.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, Button bets, Hero calls, UTG folds, MP2 folds.

Turn: (3.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button calls.

River: (7.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

Final Pot: 9.25 BB

<edited draw description: called it a gutshot>

aK13 · #2 06-06-2005, 06:15 PM

4.25 is not good enough to call with OESD?

I also think you are misapplying this idea, btw.

SeaEagle · #3 06-06-2005, 06:37 PM

Good Sklansky article. I hadn't seen that one.

IMO, you made mistake #7. The 8 isn't much of a scare card, and with button betting again on the turn, it's too likely he'd caught enough of the board to call you down.

A bluff check/raise on the flop is a much better play. You have excellent fold equity since people tend to give a lot of credence to a c/r into 3 players. But in this case you can be almost certain that the first two players don't have a K and the button should have been betting pretty much any two cards.

Hoi Polloi · #4 06-06-2005, 08:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
4.25 is not good enough to call with OESD?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not strictly by the numbers. I need 4.9 to 1, no?

[ QUOTE ]
I also think you are misapplying this idea, btw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, okay. I'll note that down. Or you could explain your thinking.

Hoi Polloi · #5 06-06-2005, 08:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
IMO, you made mistake #7.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I have the odds to call. I'm only getting 4.25 to 1 need 4.9. Not to be a stickler, but that's sort of the point of the post.

toss · #6 06-06-2005, 08:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think I have the odds to call. I'm only getting 4.25 to 1 need 4.9. Not to be a stickler, but that's sort of the point of the post.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think you'll be able to collect one BB from him on the river if you hit? Do you think you'll be able to collect maybe two big bets if you hit and checkraise?

thirddan · #7 06-06-2005, 08:10 PM

calling the turn is fine, youare getting a little over 4-1 immediately, but if you hit you will most likely get another bet (or 2 if you try a c/r) on the river which improves your odds for calling with a draw, while if you miss you will lose no extra (unless you decide to call a bet if you pair up...