I think I "value bet" too much when one card ahead TD 72

[dibbs]

Been thinking recently after reading TT's TD epiphany and I'm starting to wonder if I "value bet" too much when one card ahead against an opponent. Here's some examples that aren't great but will have to do.

Hand 1: A is quite loose and not too good.
A: -- -- -- -- --
Hero: 2c 4h 7c 5c Ac
B: -- -- -- -- --
C: -- -- -- -- --
D: -- -- -- -- --

First Round:

C folds. D calls.
A raises to
$.50. Hero re-raises to $.75. C folds.
D folds. A calls.

Hero takes 1 card. A takes 3 cards.


A: -- -- -- -- --
Hero: 2c 4h 7c 5c Jd

Second Round:

Hero bets $.25. A calls.

Hero takes 1 card. A takes 2 cards.


A: -- -- -- -- --
Hero: 2c 4h 7c 5c Ts

Third Round:

Hero bets $.50. A raises to $1. Hero calls.

Hero takes 1 card. A stands pat.

A: -- -- -- -- --
Hero: 2c 4h 7c 5c 4d

Final Round:

hero checks. A bets $.50. Hero folds.
$.50 (uncalled).


Hand 2: C is also loose and not very good.

A: -- -- -- -- --
Hero: 7s 5c Qd 2c 4s
B: -- -- -- -- --
C: -- -- -- -- --

First Round:

B folds. C calls. A folds.
Hero raises to $.50. C calls.

Hero takes 1 card. C takes 2 cards.

Hero: 7s 5c 2c 4s Ac
C: -- -- -- -- --

Second Round:

Hero $.25. C calls.

Hero takes 1 card. C takes 2 cards.

Hero: 7s 5c 2c 4s 2h
C: -- -- -- -- --

Third Round:

Hero bets $.50. C calls.

Hero takes 1 card. C stands pat.

Hero: 7s 5c 4s 2h Kh
C: -- -- -- -- --

Final Round:

Hero. C bets $.50. Hero Folds.


A: -- -- -- -- --
Hero: 2h 4d 3h 7d 8s
B: -- -- -- -- --
C: -- -- -- -- --

First Round:

A calls. Hero raises to $.50. B
folds. C calls. A calls.

C takes 3 cards. A takes 2 cards.
Hero stands pat.

Hand 3: C is still not very good.

A: -- -- -- -- --
Hero: 5h 4d 3h 7d 8s
C: -- -- -- -- --

Second Round:

C checks. A checks. Hero bets
$.25. C calls. A folds.

C takes 2 cards. Hero stands pat.

Hero: 5h 4d 3h 7d 8s
C: -- -- -- -- --

Third Round:

C checks. Hero bets $.50. C
calls.

C stands pat. Hero stands pat.

Hero: 5h 4d 3h 7d 8s
C: -- -- -- -- --

Final Round:

C checks. Hero checks.


Showdown:

C shows 8c 6d 4c 3d 2d.
C has 8 6 4 3 2.
Hero mucks cards.
(Hero has 8s 7d 5h 4d 3h.)


I wanted to use some 237xx examples too but I deleted the txt by accident. Basically I have the DN frame of mind bet when ahead in my head and I'm wondering when it's the right decision and when it's not. I don't think of pot control nearly enough in TD partially because I don't know all of the math to it, just curious if people have any thoughts or examples of when they push hard or when you slow down. Rambling I know, sorry.

[fnord_too]

I just about always bet when I drew one less card than my opponent (HU). You simply have to. Also, when drawing the same amount and improving I always bet. If you check and get bet at in either situation YOU may not be getting the right odds to call. You can slow down if and when they catch up. Chasing is the prime error in this game, make it cost. If you get run down, your opponent is just reinforcing a very costly habit.

I know there are some freak cases when I don't bet, but they involve things like getting a free pass and drawing 3 and not improving when my opponent draws 4. (Actually, I think you are probably behind more often than not in that case.)

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

I think you have to bet for value in every one of those hands -- these kind of things happen. Chasers catch up (and some players seem to always catch up on you) -- but you need to make them pay to do it.

The first two hands you are OOP and many players (bad or otherwise) will stay pat with position with any J or lower hand (and sometimes much worse) when they see you are still drawing in the third round. Having a one card draw from the start and never making a hand sucks -- but it happens all the time -- and it sucks even more when the guy drawing three makes his seven (or smooth 8) by the end of the second draw.

[MarkGritter]

You've got to bet in these situations; it is not a marginal value bet. Giving a free card on the last draw can be disastrous. You lose at most one bet by betting out (since you would call if villian bet) compared with checking. But, you can lose the entire pot if villian gets to check through and draw two again.

"Try to win the big pots right away." Sometimes Villian will fold even if he has odds to draw, or call when he doesn't have odds to draw. Sometimes villian will fold correctly and you save some fraction of a large pot. But he can't make any mistakes if you don't bet, and his mistakes are what make you money.

[timprov]

If I didn't already know you were reading TOP, this would have been a sure givaway.

Agreed that betting when a card ahead is a tactical necessity at least 95% of the time.

[Luv2DriveTT]

Hand #1 - If the player is a good thinking opponent, re-raise and stand pat with your made ten. Don't bet the river if he doesn't break his 8.

A related thought... when you have an amazing hand pre-first draw and you are first to act,its often better to limp if a full field will encourage players with a 3 card draw to continue. If your opponents will cold-call regardless, then value bet relentlessly.

[MarkGritter]

I was curious what the 'worst case' was here--- is there any hand where Villian is drawing two, and you are not a favorite if Villian plays perfectly?

The answer, surprisingly, is yes. If Villian holds a 732 in the first situation, he is a small favorite.

Analysis:

Hero holds 7s 5c 2c 4s 2c after drawing 1. Previously drew Qd and Ac. Villian holds 7h 3s 2s and his previous discards are treated as unknowns. So, there are 42 cards unknown, 861 possible 2-card draws for villian. I have ignored action on the last round, but did indicate the probability of getting raised by a very strong hand.

Here is the complete table of Villian's best draws. (Some interesting features: Villian is better off drawing to a T than drawing two, but drawing to a J or standing pat with one is never a favorite.)

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Draw 1 Draw 2 Probability Final draw Draw EV Villian EV P(Raise)
A A 0.003484321 7h 3s 2s / Ad Ah 0.359 0.001250871
A K 0.013937282 7h 3s 2s / Ad Kh 0.361 0.005031359
A Q 0.010452962 7h 3s 2s / Ad Qh 0.36 0.003763066
A J 0.013937282 7h 3s 2s / Ad Jh 0.361 0.005031359
A T 0.013937282 Th 7h 3s 2s / Ad 0.397 0.005533101
A 9 0.013937282 9h 7h 3s 2s / Ad 0.433 0.006034843
A 8 0.013937282 8h 7h 3s 2s / Ad 0.458 0.006383275
A 7 0.006968641 7h 3s 2s / Ad 7c 0.363 0.002529617
A 6 0.013937282 7h 6h 3s 2s / Ad 0.478 0.006662021
A 5 0.010452962 7h 5h 3s 2s / Ad 0.53 0.00554007
A 4 0.010452962 7h 4h 3s 2s / Ad 0.534 0.005581882
A 3 0.010452962 7h 3s 2s / Ad 3h 0.378 0.00395122
A 2 0.003484321 7h 3s 2s / Ad 2d 0.359 0.001250871
K K 0.006968641 7h 3s 2s / Kd Kh 0.361 0.002515679
K Q 0.013937282 7h 3s 2s / Kd Qh 0.361 0.005031359
K J 0.018583043 7h 3s 2s / Kd Jh 0.362 0.006727062
K T 0.018583043 7h 3s 2s Th / Kd 0.397 0.007377468
K 9 0.018583043 7h 3s 2s 9h / Kd 0.433 0.008046458
K 8 0.018583043 7h 3s 2s 8h / Kd 0.459 0.008529617
K 7 0.009291521 7h 3s 2s / Kd 7d 0.364 0.003382114
K 6 0.018583043 7h 3s 2s 6h / Kd 0.478 0.008882695
K 5 0.013937282 7h 3s 2s 5h / Kd 0.529 0.007372822
K 4 0.013937282 7h 3s 2s 4h / Kd 0.533 0.007428571
K 3 0.013937282 7h 3s 2s / Kd 3d 0.378 0.005268293
K 2 0.004645761 7h 3s 2s / Kd 2d 0.36 0.001672474
Q Q 0.003484321 7h 3s 2s / Qs Qh 0.359 0.001250871
Q J 0.013937282 7h 3s 2s / Qs Jc 0.361 0.005031359
Q T 0.013937282 7h 3s 2s Th / Qs 0.397 0.005533101
Q 9 0.013937282 7h 3s 2s 9h / Qs 0.433 0.006034843
Q 8 0.013937282 7h 3s 2s 8h / Qs 0.458 0.006383275
Q 7 0.006968641 7h 3s 2s / Qs 7c 0.363 0.002529617
Q 6 0.013937282 7h 3s 2s 6h / Qs 0.478 0.006662021
Q 5 0.010452962 7h 3s 2s 5h / Qs 0.53 0.00554007
Q 4 0.010452962 7h 3s 2s 4h / Qs 0.534 0.005581882
Q 3 0.010452962 7h 3s 2s / Qs 3d 0.378 0.00395122
Q 2 0.003484321 7h 3s 2s / Qs 2d 0.359 0.001250871
J J 0.006968641 7h 3s 2s Jc / Js 0.371 0.002585366
J T 0.018583043 7h 3s 2s Tc Jc 0.475 0.008826945
J 9 0.018583043 7h 3s 2s 9c Jc 0.475 0.008826945
J 8 0.018583043 7h 3s 2s 8c Jc 0.475 0.008826945
J 7 0.009291521 7h 3s 2s / Jd 7c 0.364 0.003382114
J 6 0.018583043 7h 3s 2s 6h / Jc 0.478 0.008882695
J 5 0.013937282 7h 3s 2s 5h / Jc 0.529 0.007372822
J 4 0.013937282 7h 3s 2s 4h / Jc 0.533 0.007428571
J 3 0.013937282 7h 3s 2s / Jd 3d 0.378 0.005268293
J 2 0.004645761 7h 3s 2s / Jd 2d 0.36 0.001672474
T T 0.006968641 7h 3s 2s Td / Tc 0.471 0.00328223
T 9 0.018583043 7h 3s 2s 9d Td 0.575 0.01068525
T 8 0.018583043 7h 3s 2s 8d Td 0.575 0.01068525
T 7 0.009291521 7h 3s 2s Td / 7d 0.398 0.003698026
T 6 0.018583043 7h 3s 2s 6d Td 0.575 0.01068525
T 5 0.013937282 7h 3s 2s 5d Td 0.625 0.008710801
T 4 0.013937282 7h 3s 2s 4d Td 0.625 0.008710801
T 3 0.013937282 7h 3s 2s Td / 3d 0.416 0.005797909
T 2 0.004645761 7h 3s 2s / Td 2d 0.396 0.001839721
9 9 0.006968641 7h 3s 2s 9d / 9c 0.453 0.003156794
9 8 0.018583043 7h 3s 2s 8c 9c 0.675 0.012543554 0.018583043
9 7 0.009291521 7h 3s 2s 9c / 7c 0.434 0.00403252
9 6 0.018583043 7h 3s 2s 6c 9c 0.675 0.012543554 0.018583043
9 5 0.013937282 7h 3s 2s 5s 9c 0.725 0.01010453 0.013937282
9 4 0.013937282 7h 3s 2s 4c 9c 0.725 0.01010453 0.013937282
9 3 0.013937282 7h 3s 2s 9c / 3d 0.452 0.006299652
9 2 0.004645761 7h 3s 2s 9c / 2d 0.431 0.002002323
8 8 0.006968641 7h 3s 2s 8c / 8d 0.479 0.003337979
8 7 0.009291521 7h 3s 2s 8c / 7d 0.46 0.0042741
8 6 0.018583043 7h 3s 2s 6d 8c 0.775 0.014401858 0.018583043
8 5 0.013937282 7h 3s 2s 5d 8c 0.825 0.011498258 0.013937282
8 4 0.013937282 7h 3s 2s 4d 8c 0.825 0.011498258 0.013937282
8 3 0.013937282 7h 3s 2s 8c / 3d 0.478 0.006662021
8 2 0.004645761 7h 3s 2s 8c / 2d 0.457 0.002123113
7 7 0.00116144 7h 3s 2s / 7d 7c 0.365 0.000423926
7 6 0.009291521 7h 3s 2s 6h / 7c 0.477 0.004432056
7 5 0.006968641 7h 3s 2s 5h / 7c 0.53 0.00369338
7 4 0.006968641 7h 3s 2s 4h / 7c 0.58 0.004041812
7 3 0.006968641 7h 3s 2s / 7c 3c 0.381 0.002655052
7 2 0.00232288 7h 3s 2s / 7c 2d 0.362 0.000840883
6 6 0.006968641 7h 3s 2s 6c / 6d 0.497 0.003463415
6 5 0.013937282 7h 3s 2s 6c 5d 0.925 0.012891986 0.013937282
6 4 0.013937282 7h 3s 2s 6c 4d 0.925 0.012891986 0.013937282
6 3 0.013937282 7h 3s 2s 6c / 3d 0.497 0.006926829
6 2 0.004645761 7h 3s 2s 6c / 2d 0.476 0.002211382
5 5 0.003484321 7h 3s 2s 5s / 5d 0.53 0.00184669
5 4 0.010452962 7h 3s 2s 4d 5s 0.963 0.010066202 0.010452962
5 3 0.010452962 7h 3s 2s 5s / 3c 0.551 0.005759582
5 2 0.003484321 7h 3s 2s 5s / 2d 0.531 0.001850174
4 4 0.003484321 7h 3s 2s 4c / 4d 0.532 0.001853659
4 3 0.010452962 7h 3s 2s 4c / 3d 0.555 0.005801394
4 2 0.003484321 7h 3s 2s 4c / 2d 0.535 0.001864111
3 3 0.003484321 7h 3s 2s / 3d 3h 0.396 0.001379791
3 2 0.003484321 7h 3s 2s / 3d 2s 0.376 0.001310105
2 2 0 not possible

Totals 1 0.508483159 0.149825784
</pre><hr />

Thus villian has 50.8% equity through perfect play, and will raise at least 15% of the time! In this case it is a 'mistake' (in the Sklansky sense only) to bet out.

However, usually villian has something worse than this. And Villian will often make a (Sklansky) mistake by folding hands he has odds to call, because he cannot tell if you are pat or not. For example, if you are pat with an 8 or 9, villian cannot profitably draw to a T, so villian's perception of his EV is probably 30% lower.

So, even in this case you must bet! Inducing an "erroneous" fold here is a major win--- Villian almost never has less than 33% equity, but he doesn't know that.

[MarkGritter]

Oops, this is meant to be a case of the OP's "hand 2", not "hand 1".

[MarkGritter]

Another goof, there are three cases where standing pat with the J is better, as shown on the table: JT732, J9732, J8732. Only the draws to a 7 are superior.

(I'd go back and edit, but then my table gets all screwed up by extra newlines being inserted.)

[Luv2DriveTT]

Mark:

How are you developing this analysis? Please provide a newbie like me some guidance.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]