Silly Bets

[TazQ]

Opponent is very loose and unskilled with weird aggression. He finds a way to misplay ever hand he enters a pot with. Your image is near LAG and several players have made comments.

Here is the question. Lets assume that if you raise, and your opponent 3-bets, you are almost certain he has you beat and you can fold with no worries. If you're ahead, he'll call with a wide variety of hands. How many of you raise this river? How many call?

Party Poker (6 max, 4 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (5.40 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls.

River: (8.70 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>

[JrJordan]

Here's my thoughts on the typical moron who donk bets:

Turn donk bet: More often than not a weak hand that's testing where it stands (Top pair weak kicker is a favorite). Easy raise in this case.

Ensuing river donk bet: Almost always happens when the moron hits their awkward two pair, runner runner flush. They seem incapable of check/raising, and you've shown tremendous strength throughout the hand. Since you're 100% sure that you can fold to a 3-bet (which I don't think you ever can be given your description of this player) then the decision is probably borderline with a little lean towards raise. Any doubt whatsoever of his 3-betting possibilities makes this a standard call for me.

[JohnnyHumongous]

There is no way you can raise this, I would prefer a fold to a raise. Call is the answer unless you have a specific monster read. I have had this same line pulled on me by guys with a 2, because they think (perhaps correctly) that 3 betting the turn will totally announce their hand beyond a doubt and drive you out, where as if they bet river they pick up that extra bet.

Other random hands you will see here: Ax spades, A3 off, slowplayed AA, KJ, and if they are loose enough, 25 looking to 3-bet. The notion of "I'll raise because I can safely fold to a 3 bet" is not the right attitude here I think. You are costing yourself an extra bet and that doesn't exceed the potential benefit. What is he supposed to call your 2 bet with that you beat? Jx is it realistically. Raising costs you an extra bet and he is liable to just flatcall your raise with hands that beat you as well.

[JohnnyHumongous]

Your username on Party isn't JrJordan is it? If it is we have to talk. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]