NL2000 Could I lay down this set ?

[DominoEffect]

NL2000 10/20 blinds

Villain is a solid opponent from what I've seen. Seems to have strong hands when the deep money gets in there. Though I seen him once call $500 allin bet (pot size: 500) with just top pair A and 10 kicker (although opponent was short stack - Ended up losing that pot). Doesnt seem to overplay cards.
My stack: $2276 Villains stack: $1703

I hold 99 in CO, UTG+2 raises to $80 , Villain calls, I call and SB Calls. All else fold. On the flop of:

5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

All check.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villain bet $180 into 340 pot, I raise to $400, the SB and UTG+1 fold and the villian raises to $800. What the plan?

PART 2: river and thinking
The opponent shows massive strength, the board shows 589Q, so their are 2 possible straights out there 67 and JT, but I havent seen him play any suited connector cards especially vs a preflop raise %(cold called) (He's 18 vpip,6 preraise % in 600ish hands), but its possible he could play them. The other likely hands he could have are QQ, 88 or 55. I Don't see him playing anything else like that. I decide to just call to see what the river brings. (see if I fill up to a full house - and which card fills me up, And to see how strong his river bet is)

river: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

He goes allin $823 (pot size: $1940)

What to do now?

Thinking: Showing massive strength again, I fear my set of 9's are beat, since he knows im Solid, last time in a similar situation where he had top set Q's I turned a straight (JT (my cards), was quite seeable for anyone attentive) we both got allin, So I feel there was a good chance that I'm beat. What's the max EV play? (Also after my show of strength I would imagine he'd have to put me on a set at the very least, depending how good his read on me is though)

Comments and thoughts please?

Am I playing 'too' tight? or is it good to be able to make this laydown. What else should I really look for in an opponent that may help in reads?
Thanks!

-DE

[psyduck]

I believe that the flop is the most interesting of all streets. First off, how does he play draws and monsters on the flop? Is he the type of guy to check 55, 88 or QQ on the flop? At the same time, is he the guy to check an OESD on the flop?

Great hand. I have no idea how to play, but thought that I could throw in a couple ideas that could be important.

[DominoEffect]

Yes he could check a set in this spot for sure, on the flop. I don't see him betting out into that field with an openender, dont think he'd want to play it like that.

[thabadguy]

I dont think im good enuf to lay this down. The only hand i realistically worry about is QQ here(that also only because you said he could check a set. I dont think you worry about a straight from your description of villain. KK is also very unlikely due to the turn action and you said he doesnt overvalue hands.
The one thing i woulda done differently is after his minraise to 800 on turn, I push.
I dont like letting strong players take the lead in betting when I have a hand.

[Chris Piekarski]

Well, as I see it you committed yourself on the turn one way or another. You say you're going to see what happens on the river, but then when he pushes all in, you call anyway..so obviously you've mentally committed yourself. Might as well push the turn if that's the case. But let's look at the math:

You're pushing 1200 (400 call + 823 reraise all in) to win 3200. If he's bluffing he can't call your raise, but it seems like that's impossible with the way he played it, so there are 6 combinations of hands you're beating (55, 88) and 11 combinations of hands that beat you (QQ, TJs, 67s). He's probably not calling raises with offsuit TJ so I think my range is accurate. Also if he had QQ, he would be likely to reraise preflop which he didn't do, and he'd be likely to throw away the 67s, which makes the numbers almost even. So since I think he would play any of these 5 hands the exact same way, and you're getting 1.8-to-1 on your money, it feels like an easy call (or push) to me.

[Prevaricator]

I am pretty sure he doesn't play 55 or 88 the same way. I think you're beat; JT seems most likely. I think if he had a set he would just call rather than min raise your raise.

[Chris Piekarski]

I agree that JT seems the most likely, but I think when you factor everything in (QQ, JTo, and 67 being unlikely for various reasons) he has 88 and 55 more than often enough to make the 1.8-to-1 push profitable. Unless you think he'd fold a small set to the push...then it becomes terrible, and you should re-min or take a look at the river.

[DominoEffect]

I agonizingly folded the river allin. He had top set QQ. I dont see him reraising in MP with QQ right after someone raised to 4x BB preflop. There were a lot of hands I beat too though as was stated, and with all the money already in there I'm thinking longterm it would be best to get all the money in there, tough not to get all the money in there. Also I Just called the turn hoping to Fillup, so I would have a few less hands to worry about being beat by.

[1800GAMBLER]

1 vote for call here.

If he will play only sets this way you win 2/3 getting $1940 to $820. EV is [2 * $1940 - $820] 3060/3, $1020 per hand.

If he will also play the suited connectors that made straights then you are an 11:6 dog and still have an EV call here. [6 * $1940 - 11 * 820] = $11640 - $9020, 2620/17 = $154 per hand.

So you either missed out on $154 or $1020, my guess is $1020.

[psuasskicker]

I think just calling on the turn allows you to get away from your hand on the river. I'm not saying you should, this is a VERY tough fold to make. But it's possible.

I think if you really want to see showdown you need to move in on the turn and put the pressure on him. He's betting that river no matter what hits, so you're gonna face the river bet no matter what. May as well get it all in, especially if there's a chance he'll fold a better hand (like 67) to you.

But there's a solid shot you're beat and against a tough opponent I don't like going broke with a mediocre hand in a pot that I didn't have a lot of money committed early. Against most screw-ball guys a call down seems best (let them bluff off their stack), but against a good tough opponent I think folding here is fine.

- C -