Party 15: Sicilian Dragon

[Jeff W]

Villain is 16/3/2.5 over 30 hands--take it fwiw.

What is my river plan? Anything else I should have done differently?

Sorry if my posts today are basic. I am going over some fundamentals after a long absence from play.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Gyro is UTG+2 with As, 7s.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Gyro calls, 5 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 7c, 4c, Th (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG+1 calls, Gyro raises, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 2d (3 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 folds, Gyro calls...

[xxxxx]

A rock calls your raise and still bets out. I don't know I'd even call on the turn. I'm folding the river unimproved.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
A rock

[/ QUOTE ]
Those are not "rock" stats. Furthermore, 30 hands means nothing.

[crunchy1]

Is this a loose/passive table play gone bad or are you really regularly limped with Axs in EP in the 15/30 game?

In my experience (which is not at the 15/30) a stop'n'go by BB on the turn with stats like his (however insignificant they may be after 30 hands) likely indicates TPNK (possibly with a flush draw). It's a small pot, you made your play on the flop, you're probably drawing to only 5 outs (which may need to be discounted if his TPNK contains two clubs). I'd dump on the turn - but then again - I also don't play 15/30...

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
Is this a loose/passive table play gone bad or are you really regularly limped with Axs in EP in the 15/30 game?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah. I'd usually fold, but with someone already limping and A7s, I can see calling. Without the limper or with a worse suited ace like A2s, I would definitely fold.

[ QUOTE ]
In my experience (which is not at the 15/30) a stop'n'go by BB on the turn with stats like his (however insignificant they may be after 30 hands) likely indicates TPNK (possibly with a flush draw).

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree except for the "possibly with a flush draw". I might see this in a situation where the turn put out a new two-flush (and wasn't suited with the top card) because he could have picked up a draw (maybe), but here if he is stop-and-going with TPWK (which is likely), it is specifically because he is trying to deny a free card in case Jeff is on clubs.

[jskills]

You've gone that far, check / calling the river unimproved seems ok to me.

[chief444]

I think this one is especially tough due to the fact that the opponent was BB and could have any two before the flop and still has a very wide range. Normally there's no way the 2 improved his hand. Now it's possible. I don't really like calling down because I don't think you're good quite often enough here to do so and you're not getting odds to see the river unless you're assigning some probability that you're hand is good. But this opponent is likely to bet the river anyway with whatever he holds that he just bet the turn with. So I think I'd just fold.

edit...I meant on the turn. If you're calling the turn then you should probably be calling the river unless you don't think this opponent would bet anything worse into you again after you call the turn.

[Sarge85]

[ QUOTE ]
A rock calls your raise and still bets out. I don't know I'd even call on the turn. I'm folding the river unimproved.

[/ QUOTE ]

A rock?

How did you come to this assesment?

I'm inclined to raise the turn. Why? Because it could be that the player is simply trying to prevent hero from using the Free Card play.

Pop it again - if your raised, Fold the river UI.

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[S_Perry]

Call. This is usually a draw that picked up outs or a Tx hand that wants to snap off a suspected free card play.

[sthief09]

with no preflop raise, I think SB is likely to bet with most of his playable holdings, so there are really only 1.5 players to act behind you. I'd tend to call the flop. the pot is small and I think I'd rather keep it small and see what the other players want to do and

his aggressions numbers basically mean nothing right now. if he has a 3 PFR he probably doesn't have a 2.5 AF and vice versa, so it's essentially meaningless. if we assume he's reasonable and rational, which someone that tight (note for others that we're a lot more confident in his VPIP than AF or PFR) probably is, then he's got a crappy T there most of the time and he might not value bet it in the river, so you might even be getting a showdown.

if you hada bit stronger of a read of him being really tight and aggressive, then I think a raise on the turn looks pretty good. on one hand, he could be semibluffing a draw, and you take your free showdown, but on the other he might fold T5 or T6. it would just suck a lot of he had T2 and you had to fold A7.