Suited Ace-rag hits Top Two Pair - How's My Line?

NYCNative · #1 06-03-2005, 06:17 AM

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (10 handed) converter

CO (t1490)
Button (t2140)
SB (t1080)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1330)
Hero (t1500)
UTG+2 (t1500)
MP1 (t1070)
MP2 (t1920)
MP3 (t1470)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero calls t20, 4 folds, CO calls t20, Button calls t20, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t100) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, CO bets t20, Button calls t20, SB folds, BB folds, Hero raises to t80, CO calls t60, Button calls t60.

Turn: (t340) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets t340, CO folds, Button folds.

Final Pot: t680

steelcmg · #2 06-03-2005, 07:30 AM

Dont see anything wrong with the bet still really early so i would just take the chips.

Degen · #3 06-03-2005, 07:38 AM

i don't check the flop...bet this out, you may get raised by AQ or AJ, then you can three bet.

Andre

kyro · #4 06-03-2005, 07:49 AM

You mean besides it being a turbomuck preflop? Gonna get yourself in trouble...

NYCNative · #5 06-03-2005, 08:04 AM

I rarely, if ever, get myself into trouble limping with suited Ace-rag. I know that top pair is pointless, I am looking for the nut flush or trips or the situation above.

People limp with small PPs for set value all the time. You have a lot bigger chance of hitting any of the above scenarios than you do a set.

gasgod · #6 06-03-2005, 08:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I rarely, if ever, get myself into trouble limping with suited Ace-rag. I know that top pair is pointless, I am looking for the nut flush or trips or the situation above.

People limp with small PPs for set value all the time. You have a lot bigger chance of hitting any of the above scenarios than you do a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

The probability of flopping trips, two pair, or a flush is quite a bit less than flopping a set, even when you toss in the flushes you get seeing all 5 cards.

Moreover, Flopping trip Aces is vulnerable to another Ace. All in all, A6s is a lot weaker, IMO than a pocket pair.

GG

NYCNative · #7 06-03-2005, 08:48 AM

I have trouble believing that the odds on getting at least a flush draw, two pairs or trips - any of the above situations - is less than hitting a two-outer.

I welcome the math wizards to show me otherwise.

hummusx · #8 06-03-2005, 09:06 AM

Ok, here we go:

Odds of flopping a set = 7.5:1, 11.8%

Odds of flopping a flush with 2 suited = 118/1, .84%

Odds of flopping 2 pair with any 2 = 49/1, 2%

Odds of flopping trips with any 2 non paired = 73/1, 1.35%

So your % of hitting a flush, 2 pair, or trips with your Axs is just over 4% compared to 11% to make trips with a PP. Maybe playing Axs ISN'T as good an idea as you thought?

NYCNative · #9 06-03-2005, 09:15 AM

I said flopping a flush DRAW. Surely that makes a difference...

kyro · #10 06-03-2005, 09:17 AM

Well hell. Then let's play K2s to hit that draw. Part of the reason for playing suited cards is so you can make other hands with them.