5/10 Live game

[ArturiusX]

I'm in MP2 with AA. All fold to me, whom of course raises. Everyone else folds to a solid sb TAG (I know he plays online poker too), whom 3-bets. I cap of course.

The flop:

KKQ. He bets, I fold.

Thoughts?

[Nick C]

This one seems kind of read-dependent to me, but I think I would call the flop.

Does this live game have a bad-beat jackpot if aces full get beaten by quads or better and all hole cards play? If so, I would definitely call.

[ArturiusX]

Its interesting, because he'd definitly 3-bet with a larger range of hands then the normal party TAG, mostly because he knows I like to open raise with A8s and the like. JJ, TT, AJs all wouldn't be totally out of the question.

[The Goober]

[ QUOTE ]
Its interesting, because he'd definitly 3-bet with a larger range of hands then the normal party TAG, mostly because he knows I like to open raise with A8s and the like. JJ, TT, AJs all wouldn't be totally out of the question.

[/ QUOTE ]

So why the fold? If you call him down all the way, you are getting about 2.5:1 (13:5). You don't think you are good here 1 time in 3?

Suppose he'd play this way with TT-AA, AK-AQ.
You beat:
TT: 6 combinations
JJ: 6
AQ: 8
20 ways

Lose:
AK: 8
KK: 1
QQ: 3
12 ways

Tie:
AA - 1 way

This has you as a favorite, and I didn't even include AJs or 99. I'd probably just call down.

[Buckmulligan]

Folding sucks here. If he were really that strong wouldn't he slow down here knowing he can expect you to bet the flop and the turn at will? This is a feel bet. I would be more tempted to call the flpop and raise the turn than fold the flop.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Its interesting, because he'd definitly 3-bet with a larger range of hands then the normal party TAG, mostly because he knows I like to open raise with A8s and the like. JJ, TT, AJs all wouldn't be totally out of the question.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he doesn't have a lot of respect for your preflop raise, then I don't like folding the flop.

Before I responded, I was working out the combos Goober lists based on an AA-TT, AK/AQ range, and based on that alone you are ahead more often than not on the flop:

KK (1 combo)
QQ (3 combos)
AK (4 combos)

AA (1 combo)

AQ (6 combos)
JJ (6 combos)
TT (6 combos)

So that puts you ahead more often than you're behind, and if we widen Villain's range, you're ahead even more often (well, except that adding KQ gives Villain 6 additional combos that beat you). What I wasn't sure about was how to interpret the flop bet, especially now that you've capped preflop.

I still don't know how to, exactly, and I guess it depends in part on Villain's perception of you. But like Buckmulligan says, Villain should be expecting you to bet the flop. So is he leading as a stab, or is he leading hoping to represent a stab (that he's hoping you'll play back at), since he has an absolute monster?

In any event, I'm thinking a flop call would be good.

[Chairman Wood]

B00. ArturiusX = weak.
Call, call, call. Let him keep coming at you.

[matmoeb]

i think id definately call and try to get to the river as cheaply as possible. But your gut can tell you what to do at any point in here, you may have done the right thing, but not according to the odds

[The Goober]

I should really stop posting when I'm high on crack (or at work, pretty much the same thing). Your numbers for AK and AQ are right, of course. Basic point remains the same though - unless this guy is real passive, folding here sucks.

[ArturiusX]

Yep, exactly what I wanted to hear.

Its the first time I think i've ever folded AA on the flop (or on any street heads up). I guess it was one of those 'i looked into his eyes' and saw the AK looking right at me.